SPY Technical Analysis – Sep 26 Morning Setup

SPY is opening the session with early upward pressure but still sitting in a bigger, mixed range. Here’s a structured read based on the two 15-minute charts you shared.

1. Price Action & Market Structure
* Trend bias: Pre-market push lifted price from ~657 to 662.3, breaking the overnight range and creating a small bullish structure break (CHoCH).
* Immediate reaction: After tagging ~662.3 the candle pulled back toward 659–660, so the move is being tested rather than cleanly extending.
* Key intraday pivot: 659.5–660 zone now acts as first key support. Holding here keeps the morning bullish idea alive; losing it invites a retest of the lower demand pocket at 656.5–657.

2. Supply & Demand / Order Flow
* Demand: 657–656.5 (HVL base and yesterday’s lower support).
* Supply: 661–662.3 (today’s pre-market high and first call resistance). Above that, next notable supply is near 664–665 where bigger call walls cluster.

3. Indicator Check
* 9 EMA / 21 EMA: Price is still above both, showing near-term momentum, but the recent red candle is testing the 9 EMA.
* MACD: Positive histogram and lines still crossed bullish, supporting continuation if support holds.
* Stochastic: Entering overbought territory; a short-term pause or retest is normal.

4. Options & GEX Context
* Call Walls / GEX:
* 1st call resistance: 661 (56% concentration)
* 2nd: 664 (36%)
* 3rd: 665 (49%)
* Put Walls / Support:
* 1st put wall: 656.5 (highest negative NET GEX)
* 2nd: 654 (stronger downside magnet if 656.5 breaks)
* Put/Call ratio: Puts ~62% vs Calls ~38%, still tilted bearish on a larger frame.
Interpretation: Near-term intraday gamma pressure favors a chop between ~657 and ~662 until one side gives way. A decisive 15-minute close over 662.3 could squeeze to 664-665.

5. Trading Scenarios
Bullish Path
* Entry idea: Bounce from 659.5–660 with volume reclaim.
* Targets: 662.3 then 664–665.
* Stop: Below 657.
Bearish Path
* Entry idea: Clean 15-min close under 659 with selling volume.
* Targets: 656.5 first, then 654.
* Stop: Above 661.
Scalpers can watch 1-minute retests at these pivots for confirmation.

6. Quick Take
SPY is trying to build a morning reversal off the 657 base, but gamma positioning and overnight resistance at 662.3 keep the upside capped until proven otherwise. Early risk-reward favors patience: wait for either a strong 15-minute close above 662.3 for a push toward 664-665, or a failure below 659 to ride a fade toward 656.5/654.