No change in initial analysis...yet

2019年8月10日

SPY In my previous SPY post (linked) I believed that we would see rallies up to the lost support/gap fill areas and then begin a descent back down to 274's area, and I am beginning to think we may quite possibly be in the 230's by the first part of 2020 if things don't change. I initiated short position via Aug 16th 285 puts at SPY 292.5 on Thursday. Didn't wager a large amount of money so that the risk reward is still tilted heavily in my favor. We'll see how it turns out. Happy hunting and GLTA!!

2019年8月15日

交易進行

Gotta love it when a plan comes together!! 700%+ gains today alone from Aug 16th P285 bought yesterday. I do not foresee any letting up on the selling pressure this time though, I really would not be surprised at all to see a 5%+ decline in SPY in a single session this week. Slowed earnings growth, trade war fears, and now the straw that broke the camel's back--the yield curve inversion--all add up to selling pressure. Regardless of your feelings personally on yield curve inversions and what they mean in today's market, the overall perception remains unflinchingly bearish. And since perception is reality in the market, these fears are far from being baked into the prices we see today. Again, likely 230's by early 2020 at the latest is my current analysis, and unless something radical happens soon, i.e. China deal, I see no changes. Hope you rode with, and GLTA!!