This is an Update to my previous SPY idea - same target/time to target, just more simplified. After the last 2 weeks there is a lot of bearish sentiment but its really just finding support at wave 4 of a leading diagonal.
The initial target is 408 in the next week or 2, and then goal target is 425-432 by late March-Early April.
The symmetry in the waves indicates this is a leading diagonal (or bearish wolfe wave that is about to complete the final wave). Either way its still bullish near-term. After 425-432 there will be significant downside risk, but for now expect a nice rally through March.
We are in the bounce zone, there is still risk to 388-391 early this week, but if any of the following occur we won't see the 388-391:
- retest and hold 393
- close above 397.92
- Intraday breach of 401.42 (above 401.42 it will turn into explosive upside)
The initial target is 408 in the next week or 2, and then goal target is 425-432 by late March-Early April.
The symmetry in the waves indicates this is a leading diagonal (or bearish wolfe wave that is about to complete the final wave). Either way its still bullish near-term. After 425-432 there will be significant downside risk, but for now expect a nice rally through March.
We are in the bounce zone, there is still risk to 388-391 early this week, but if any of the following occur we won't see the 388-391:
- retest and hold 393
- close above 397.92
- Intraday breach of 401.42 (above 401.42 it will turn into explosive upside)
評論:
*Note: on a bearish wolfe wave the final wave (which we are about to see) tends to overshoot the upper trendline before reversing, so the 432 target which I am getting from a confluence of techniques makes the most sense here.
評論:
I drew the trendlines based on the closing prices
評論:
Here we go. About to run.
評論:
It will follow dashed green trajectory to target. 432 by 3/29 is point estimate
