RECESSION PROABILITY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES JAN - JUN 2024
10Y/2Y Yield Spread & Unemployment Rate
Originally shared back in July 2023 (see below charts)
Its interesting to see that the yield curve is rising fast (up towards the 0 level)
We are reaching into dangerous recessionary territory. No guarantees, just a significantly increased probability.
Continuous jobless claims are reaching pre-recession warning levels in both time and volume. Meaning more and more people are becoming unemployed and remaining unemployed for longer. More info in links below.
The average interest rate pause timeframe is closing in fast at June 2024 also(Contained in Charts below also).
Its time to pay very close attention. The initial 6 months of this year
Stay safe out there
PUKA
Originally shared back in July 2023 (see below charts)
Its interesting to see that the yield curve is rising fast (up towards the 0 level)
We are reaching into dangerous recessionary territory. No guarantees, just a significantly increased probability.
Continuous jobless claims are reaching pre-recession warning levels in both time and volume. Meaning more and more people are becoming unemployed and remaining unemployed for longer. More info in links below.
The average interest rate pause timeframe is closing in fast at June 2024 also(Contained in Charts below also).
Its time to pay very close attention. The initial 6 months of this year
Stay safe out there
PUKA
