I get it, looks like a cluster f***.. Only so much I can do to capture full picture over entire public history, so plz read below (this chart is merely to provide context for my forecasts which I will cover in my main post after this):
TDOC is not dead, its not a broken chart - rather, there is indication using elliot wave that this is a potential monster that is currently trying to complete its corrective phase at the intermediate and primary degree (within a larger bullish cycle that could merely be around wave II). Even if this doesn't ever make a new high (and thus reach wave III of the larger cycle), it is still bullish near-mid term after just completing wave (5) of circle C of an expanded flat - which I believe will completes wave II of the cycle. For this to be invalidated it would need to drop to an all time low below 9.03 (underlying), or it will need to attempt a run to at least test the circle A level and get harshly rejected such that it begins a new leg down toward all time low.
I am going to post another idea that zooms in on the local price action (where the yellow circle is on this chart around the 2022 price action), but here is an overview of my mid-long term expectations:
• TDOC appears to be nearing completion of Cycle wave II that began at its all time low in the Spring of 2016. Wave I was at 253 in August 2020, and an expanded flat formed off of that to begin a grueling corrective wave down to current levels. The details of the expanded flat are below:
- Circle green A formed @ 168.50 in November 2020
- Circle green B formed at the all time high of 308 in February 2021, this was likely the result of the massive short squeeze that occurred in the market at the beginning of 2021. Wave B was almost exactly 1.618 of A
- Circle green C is forming currently and may or may not be complete – that is what I will discuss in the main idea following this context. We can see wave C attempted to complete around the 1.618 of B back in April 2022 but at the 5 count off the high at B was not convincing and it gapped down to the 2.00 of B in early May 2022 (*Note: this is a very important level, ~28, because it is the level TDOC opened at when it went public – more on * in below section)
• When TDOC went public, even before COVID sent it into insanity mode, it had a very impressive beginning – it traded very well and there was indication of massive interest by big money will long term bullish sentiment. This makes sense because the company is in fact a game changer, but back to the chart… after going public around 28/share (*), it underwent a Wyckoff accumulation phase and established a low around 9/share. From that point it began an primary motive sequence (blue circle EWC 1-5) to initiate markup to its all time high of 308 (+ 3,322% off the low in only 4.5 years). A couple things to note on that:
- After the low around 9/share in 2016, it gained traction and broke out above the 28 (*IPO price), at that point volatility and volume really picked up and set the stage for its epic run.
- Recently we just saw a retest of that 28 level and it has shown support thus far, which makes me think we are about to see major markup from here (details of that covered in my next post)
• Given this sophisticated structure of TDOC, my minimum mid-term target expectation is for it to test old support from the expanding channel off the 2016 low around the 0.236 of green circle C – it will likely reach this by Jan 2023.. so minimum 6 month target = 93 (+150% upside move from current price). For that reason I am buying TDOC shares, but this is not financial advice. If it gets rejected in the 90s and shows resistance there it would be the first sign, but not full confirmation, that we might not see a new high. It would likely just consolidate there before testing mid 100s (see below)
• My minimum long-term target by 2028 is 167 (+ 350% upside move from current price). For this reason I will be adding shares if it makes it over 93, i.e. if it makes it back inside that channel and regains support there. This can happen a whole lot sooner than 2028, but 2028 is my expectation for the longest it would take to get to 167. 167 is the 0.50 of green circle C
• If I am right that we are in cycle green II, the above minimum targets are merely checkpoints on the path to new all time highs. My logic here is that big money investors saw the capacity for massive growth in TDOCs epic run from 9 to 308, and they are beginning to accumulate again to mark it up even higher this time. I think COVID was a massive catalyst for the crazy levels reached in cycle I, so it could take time for TDOC to make its way to new highs and complete III, but if anything I think covid gave it the exposure necessary to spark long term interest, and the current level is most likely seen by big money as a massive discount/opportunity.
Please see my next idea as a local analysis for my near-term expectations and forecast, that idea will be linked to this and it will contain the evidence that I see for my expectation that this will indeed reach new highs in the years to come.
TDOC is not dead, its not a broken chart - rather, there is indication using elliot wave that this is a potential monster that is currently trying to complete its corrective phase at the intermediate and primary degree (within a larger bullish cycle that could merely be around wave II). Even if this doesn't ever make a new high (and thus reach wave III of the larger cycle), it is still bullish near-mid term after just completing wave (5) of circle C of an expanded flat - which I believe will completes wave II of the cycle. For this to be invalidated it would need to drop to an all time low below 9.03 (underlying), or it will need to attempt a run to at least test the circle A level and get harshly rejected such that it begins a new leg down toward all time low.
I am going to post another idea that zooms in on the local price action (where the yellow circle is on this chart around the 2022 price action), but here is an overview of my mid-long term expectations:
• TDOC appears to be nearing completion of Cycle wave II that began at its all time low in the Spring of 2016. Wave I was at 253 in August 2020, and an expanded flat formed off of that to begin a grueling corrective wave down to current levels. The details of the expanded flat are below:
- Circle green A formed @ 168.50 in November 2020
- Circle green B formed at the all time high of 308 in February 2021, this was likely the result of the massive short squeeze that occurred in the market at the beginning of 2021. Wave B was almost exactly 1.618 of A
- Circle green C is forming currently and may or may not be complete – that is what I will discuss in the main idea following this context. We can see wave C attempted to complete around the 1.618 of B back in April 2022 but at the 5 count off the high at B was not convincing and it gapped down to the 2.00 of B in early May 2022 (*Note: this is a very important level, ~28, because it is the level TDOC opened at when it went public – more on * in below section)
• When TDOC went public, even before COVID sent it into insanity mode, it had a very impressive beginning – it traded very well and there was indication of massive interest by big money will long term bullish sentiment. This makes sense because the company is in fact a game changer, but back to the chart… after going public around 28/share (*), it underwent a Wyckoff accumulation phase and established a low around 9/share. From that point it began an primary motive sequence (blue circle EWC 1-5) to initiate markup to its all time high of 308 (+ 3,322% off the low in only 4.5 years). A couple things to note on that:
- After the low around 9/share in 2016, it gained traction and broke out above the 28 (*IPO price), at that point volatility and volume really picked up and set the stage for its epic run.
- Recently we just saw a retest of that 28 level and it has shown support thus far, which makes me think we are about to see major markup from here (details of that covered in my next post)
• Given this sophisticated structure of TDOC, my minimum mid-term target expectation is for it to test old support from the expanding channel off the 2016 low around the 0.236 of green circle C – it will likely reach this by Jan 2023.. so minimum 6 month target = 93 (+150% upside move from current price). For that reason I am buying TDOC shares, but this is not financial advice. If it gets rejected in the 90s and shows resistance there it would be the first sign, but not full confirmation, that we might not see a new high. It would likely just consolidate there before testing mid 100s (see below)
• My minimum long-term target by 2028 is 167 (+ 350% upside move from current price). For this reason I will be adding shares if it makes it over 93, i.e. if it makes it back inside that channel and regains support there. This can happen a whole lot sooner than 2028, but 2028 is my expectation for the longest it would take to get to 167. 167 is the 0.50 of green circle C
• If I am right that we are in cycle green II, the above minimum targets are merely checkpoints on the path to new all time highs. My logic here is that big money investors saw the capacity for massive growth in TDOCs epic run from 9 to 308, and they are beginning to accumulate again to mark it up even higher this time. I think COVID was a massive catalyst for the crazy levels reached in cycle I, so it could take time for TDOC to make its way to new highs and complete III, but if anything I think covid gave it the exposure necessary to spark long term interest, and the current level is most likely seen by big money as a massive discount/opportunity.
Please see my next idea as a local analysis for my near-term expectations and forecast, that idea will be linked to this and it will contain the evidence that I see for my expectation that this will indeed reach new highs in the years to come.
評論:
I meant to include RSI to show the bullish divergence between (3) and (5) of circle C of the expanded flat.. which indicates the bottom could be in since May mid-May of 2022
