I am going to preface this post by saying that it is very difficult to apply technical analysis to TLT since it is so much affect by MACRO events... but....
What we have is a DOJI GAPPING DOWN last friday followed by a SPINNING TO BLACK
OR, Arguably
Two Spinning top ONE WHITE ONE BLACK
if there is a reversal (bear trend up breakout) and it happens 52% of the time after the pattern, then we have on average a 9.69% return following the pattern - ($99) and as of now we have a 5.5% bounce to almost $98. Which is about half way from the top of the range I drew.
My point... be careful, may be wait till we break through $99 and retest of $99.
Hope this helps. I don't put a ton of faith that it is a reversal and if we are forming a bottom the I would guess we will retest these lows... It's encouraging though on a technical standpoint.
What we have is a DOJI GAPPING DOWN last friday followed by a SPINNING TO BLACK
OR, Arguably
Two Spinning top ONE WHITE ONE BLACK
if there is a reversal (bear trend up breakout) and it happens 52% of the time after the pattern, then we have on average a 9.69% return following the pattern - ($99) and as of now we have a 5.5% bounce to almost $98. Which is about half way from the top of the range I drew.
My point... be careful, may be wait till we break through $99 and retest of $99.
Hope this helps. I don't put a ton of faith that it is a reversal and if we are forming a bottom the I would guess we will retest these lows... It's encouraging though on a technical standpoint.
評論:
*affected.... sorry about the typo