I bought these puts last week. The lower weekly open is a good sign. This is one of few instances where I supplemented my technical analysis with an economic "what if" view. If something causes treasury yields to move up, or even if it is a temporary spike due to "uncontrolled" circumstances, TLT price will make a quick move lower and this is what I am looking to profit on. I rarely go this far out in time. Options are cheap though so it makes sense to give this time to play out, and I have plenty of time to exit position with a small loss.