Resuming the tank, goes down with the market but not up. Maintaining a short position until it hits the next support at $16.5. Wouldn't chase it at this point, it's oversold on every time frame, but there's no point in closing a short position knowing it can't go up either. If it does, short any rallies, this stock is dead.
Tariffs hit retail the hardest, will be a bad month for retail stocks.
Tariffs hit retail the hardest, will be a bad month for retail stocks.
手動結束交易:
Closed it out so I can look for entry into next week's puts. Wanted to cycle into a lower strike to lock in profits anyways, and at this point, I don't expect it to drop much more than $.90 in a day anyways.
評論:
BTW, hope you guys made money on thsi one.... stupid easy money, and a lot more room to go down.
交易進行:
Bought Sept puts because it can't go up even when the market does. PE still 98+, this thing really needs to get down to $5 to get to a reasonable valuation.
Still think it'll get a bounce because it's oversold, going with longer expiration to ride out the bounce, will add next week's puts if it does bounce tomorrow or Monday.
Still think it'll get a bounce because it's oversold, going with longer expiration to ride out the bounce, will add next week's puts if it does bounce tomorrow or Monday.
評論:
Remains my only short position, keeping it open since I'm playing with profits. SPX up 40 points and this managed 20 cents, lol. Appears it wants to form another bear flag or pennant here, though there's a chance it could go for a gap fill next week and hit $19.8. That's where I'm adding more puts.
Get Sept puts, possibility of 2 or 3 more up days before the next tank.
Get Sept puts, possibility of 2 or 3 more up days before the next tank.
評論:
Also, who would decide they want to buy a company with 100 PE ratio and no revenue growth? Nobody besides computers and short sellers covering.
評論:
SPX up 41 pts, 6000 put contracts either sold or exercised today and it managed 14 cents, lol, and doji'ed out.
Nobody but day traders, computers, and short sellers buying. Expect it to hit $16.5 support before I see any real buying. Long term this is headed to PE of less than 20 or less, which puts it in the low single digits ($3 - $4 range).
Nobody but day traders, computers, and short sellers buying. Expect it to hit $16.5 support before I see any real buying. Long term this is headed to PE of less than 20 or less, which puts it in the low single digits ($3 - $4 range).
交易進行:
Added some puts today on the stupid bounce up. Next add point is 19.6 if it gets that far. I expected a pennant or bear flag here, computers will indiscriminately buy crap on up days, you can see the retail investors dumping. No accumulation at all on any time frame (1hr, 2 hr daily, etc).
Remember, to get Sept puts, the computers might be pumping the market all week.
Remember, to get Sept puts, the computers might be pumping the market all week.
評論:
The market isn;t trading on fundamentals right now but if it were, UAA guidance is for $.33 -.34 earnings this FY, putting it at $6.80 at 20 P/E and $10.20 at 30 P/E.
It's really only a matter of time before it eventually hits single digits, but it's not going to get there in a straight line. I expect big drops on market down days though, no buyers except for computers, index funds, sector ETFs, and shorts covering.
It's really only a matter of time before it eventually hits single digits, but it's not going to get there in a straight line. I expect big drops on market down days though, no buyers except for computers, index funds, sector ETFs, and shorts covering.
手動結束交易:
Decided to close this out while I'm ahead (remember I added quite a bit), will reassess at the end of the day.
Positive MFI divergence on 1 hr, 2hr, and daily charts leads me to believe that the tank is over until next earnings.
As always, take the easy money and run. SPX is down 40 pts already, can't imagine it's gonna go much more, maybe 50. Now I can take the rest of the day off.
Positive MFI divergence on 1 hr, 2hr, and daily charts leads me to believe that the tank is over until next earnings.
As always, take the easy money and run. SPX is down 40 pts already, can't imagine it's gonna go much more, maybe 50. Now I can take the rest of the day off.
交易進行:
Complete lack of ideas today so when in doubt, short garbage. UAA puts are cheap anyways, back into Sept 6 puts.
Technicals show a possible dead cat bounce, but chart pattern looks weak and fundamentals are total crap.
Technicals show a possible dead cat bounce, but chart pattern looks weak and fundamentals are total crap.
手動結束交易:
Took the gap this morning because I knew it would fill. Looks like it found support here though I thought it'd go below $17. Watch this and short again when it gets close to $20.
Even in a best case scenario, no way they can justify PE >100 with 4% annual revenue gain. This really should be trading in single digits, only a matter of when. P/E of 20 puts this stock at $4...