$UBER looks like a bargain to me in FY 2025. PT $95-104
- Uber's capital-light business model has been a major boon to their growth and global expansion efforts, whereas robotaxi will be capital extensive.
- The biggest worry regarding robotaxi implementation is the up-front capital required to get the required vehicle fleet on the road, and the years it may take to get the operations running efficiently. However, I don't think that the fear of robotaxi is overblown, as it is simply not a suitable business model in comparison to Uber's current infrastructure.
- I don't believe robotaxi fears will have materialistic impact on Ubers financials for years to come. Therefore,
UBER is a strong buy for me and I am comfortable in holding this stock and adding more if it dips.
- The biggest worry regarding robotaxi implementation is the up-front capital required to get the required vehicle fleet on the road, and the years it may take to get the operations running efficiently. However, I don't think that the fear of robotaxi is overblown, as it is simply not a suitable business model in comparison to Uber's current infrastructure.
- I don't believe robotaxi fears will have materialistic impact on Ubers financials for years to come. Therefore,
UBER is a strong buy for me and I am comfortable in holding this stock and adding more if it dips. 註釋
Fundamentally:
Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027
EPS | 2.38 | 3.29 | 4.09
EPS % | 27.99% | 38.21% | 24.29% |
- Fair forward P/E multiple for a company growing 25-30% with a moat should be around 30
- Fair stock value = EPS x Fair p/e multiple
- 2025 :
2.38 x 30 = $71.4
- 2026:
3.29 x 30 = $98.7
- 2027:
4.09 x 30 = $122
交易進行
UBER had an amazing quarter in first earning of 2025. Market overreacted and then scooped shares after realizing company is still growing and headwinds were because FX as US dollar was strong October 2024- Feb 2025 timeframe.
UBER is buying back shares as it believes share price is depressed and it is undervalued. Good use of buybacks!
註釋
Strong reasons for buying UBER:
- Fundamentals are getting better. Look at the balance sheet!
- network effects of millions of users using it on a daily basis.
- it’s not easy to scale operations of fleet management and is often unprofitable. Many companies like Google might not want to do that as it is capital expensive.
- Robotaxi isn’t gonna scale at the pace human driven taxis does as later one is capital light.
- Uber is a global platform, it operates in various countries where roads aren’t good for autonomous taxi
- Uber ceo has exceptional capabilities and credibility. He turned a billions of dollar losing business which was once thought is going to be unprofitable for years into cash flow positive behemoth.
- Uber is buying back shares very opportunistically I.e buying when they think stock is very cheap unlike other companies like Apple or other companies where they buy shares even if stock is already expensive
註釋
Snake ackman built 2 billion worth of position in UBER
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