I'm planning to open a SHORT position at 68.28 with a Target Price of 57.25 and a Stop Loss at 68.44.
If we count waves from the bottom of this last uptrend we can see a full cycle of Elliot Wave impulse waves 1-5, followed by a correction ABC and again a continuation of 5 more waves. The fifth wave is still ongoing and might reach 68.28 level, where we could see 2 top trend lines, one top of channel (black channel) and another Midline channel (Orange channel). Furthermore we have a supporting trend line that is creating an ascending wedge and all that is happening to cross at that magic 68.28. I personally CALL for a BIG SHORT ALL IN with a possible target, based on fibonacci retracement level to 57.25~.
From the fundamental point of view, and taking into consideration previous years and historic price behaviour we may enter again a seasonal period when oil prices declines despite OPEC cut agreement. Mind that market seems apparently on its way to be balanced, with forward months in backwardation, and soon OPEC will start planning the so-called exit plan of their agreement, meaning again an oil price war.
And lastly, we need to consider the fact that we have hit an historic record of net long positions with an unseen ratio of long-shorts. At some point money managers will start hedging their positions and I believe that 68.28 may be the choosen turning point.
Failing to provide a healthy retracement we may continue climbing and test new highs at 69.64 level, followed by 72.77. I hardly think that oil will move much higher as it may overshoot the strategy and affect oil demand and restart again with the glut.
If we count waves from the bottom of this last uptrend we can see a full cycle of Elliot Wave impulse waves 1-5, followed by a correction ABC and again a continuation of 5 more waves. The fifth wave is still ongoing and might reach 68.28 level, where we could see 2 top trend lines, one top of channel (black channel) and another Midline channel (Orange channel). Furthermore we have a supporting trend line that is creating an ascending wedge and all that is happening to cross at that magic 68.28. I personally CALL for a BIG SHORT ALL IN with a possible target, based on fibonacci retracement level to 57.25~.
From the fundamental point of view, and taking into consideration previous years and historic price behaviour we may enter again a seasonal period when oil prices declines despite OPEC cut agreement. Mind that market seems apparently on its way to be balanced, with forward months in backwardation, and soon OPEC will start planning the so-called exit plan of their agreement, meaning again an oil price war.
And lastly, we need to consider the fact that we have hit an historic record of net long positions with an unseen ratio of long-shorts. At some point money managers will start hedging their positions and I believe that 68.28 may be the choosen turning point.
Failing to provide a healthy retracement we may continue climbing and test new highs at 69.64 level, followed by 72.77. I hardly think that oil will move much higher as it may overshoot the strategy and affect oil demand and restart again with the glut.
評論:
I have adjusted all the resistances and trend lines and I will go ALL IN SHORT @ 6844 with SL 6860. Same TP 57.25.