$UNG bounce here back to the neckline. 60-70% upside potential

While I shared a previous idea of UNG falling all the way to $2 (and while I still think that's possible over the course of this year), I'm never one to pass up a good counter trend trade. Idea here:

I think $UNG is bottoming here. This would setup a counter trend rally back to retest the H&S neckline it broke down from $17-18 range.

There's 60%-70% upside in this trade should it materialize over the coming months. The first thing I'd watch for is a reversal in price action and then you can jump in.

I set an alert for this price level and when my alerts hit, I jump into the trade.

I'm in from $10.36. Let's see how it materializes over the coming weeks/months.

評論:

Cutting this here at a loss. I don't like that we didn't see a higher bounce and there's risk of it continuing to fall lower.

Maybe my original idea was right and it keeps going down all the way to $2. Next support is at $8, want to see what happens there.

評論:

The chart is start to look more constructive for the bullish case, but could take another week or two to materialize. I'm just going to keep watching it and see what happens.

Might take another crack at it, or might just wait for the final lows. I do think at $2 it'll be a great long term buy.

評論:

Ended up taking a long here at $9.80.

Chart is looking better, think I was just a tad too early. Let's see.

評論:

Setting a stop at $9.17. This trade is really risky, still unsure about it.

評論:

Okay, if I'm honest w/ myself it looks like it wants $8.30 before higher. Going to exit here and be more patient.