UNG needs a little higher before likely turning back down
This is a dual forecast. Looking at UNG from an elliott wave perspective, it is carving out a 3-wave corrective pattern higher. This lends a high probability that multi-year lows are not yet in. As a reminder, a five wave pattern is needed to signify a new bull trend. I can find no way to count five waves since the 2012 low.
To summarize, longer term (weeks to months), UNG should head back to the lows.
Near term (days to weeks), however, the C wave in progress is not yet complete until it completes 5 waves on the daily time frame. Right now it appears to be completing a wave 3 of C. The fibonacci projection of 26.43 is a high probability target where this corrective leg higher is proportional to the 2012-2013 rise.
To summarize, longer term (weeks to months), UNG should head back to the lows.
Near term (days to weeks), however, the C wave in progress is not yet complete until it completes 5 waves on the daily time frame. Right now it appears to be completing a wave 3 of C. The fibonacci projection of 26.43 is a high probability target where this corrective leg higher is proportional to the 2012-2013 rise.
In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there's nothing more for you to do. - William Eckhardt