UNI/XBT Uniswap Bitcoin Trade Hypothesis 4-21
已更新
Hypothesis:
I don't think it's rocket science to see the wedge building up against the red resistance rectangle. I've been buying dips in this range for the past 3 weeks and I think this is a quality set up based on 3 things in order of significance:
Justifications for Risk:
1. The chart pattern wedge set up. Seems technically sound with higher lows and hitting resistance multiple times. Should be building to a break upward.
2. The sustained price of ETH against BTC. ETH is holding strong and my perception is that over the past few months, people are taking profits in ETH more than they did before and when they otherwise would have taken profits into BTC. No hard data to back that up, just my gut. For now, ETH is holding up.
3. Uniswap's upcoming V3 upgrade currently scheduled on May 5. I realize that BTC can move the whole market down with it, but with ETH holding strong (so far) gives me more confidence in Uniswap as a project that even at approx $16.8 billion market cap is still almost half of DOGE's cap. In my mind, UNI could double or triple and still be within it's fundamental value relative to other cryptocurrencies.
Trade Outline:
Fib lines for rough targets, my red arrows show potential targets depending on risk appetite and the red line at .0011 would be my most significant sell target depending on momentum and volume.
Remember BTC can always tear off up or down and drag the rest of the market with it - so perhaps betting on these two going in different directions is the unlikeliest outcome. But the technicals and fundamentals seem to line up with this one in a way that I'm willing to give it a shot and share with you.
UNIXBT
I don't think it's rocket science to see the wedge building up against the red resistance rectangle. I've been buying dips in this range for the past 3 weeks and I think this is a quality set up based on 3 things in order of significance:
Justifications for Risk:
1. The chart pattern wedge set up. Seems technically sound with higher lows and hitting resistance multiple times. Should be building to a break upward.
2. The sustained price of ETH against BTC. ETH is holding strong and my perception is that over the past few months, people are taking profits in ETH more than they did before and when they otherwise would have taken profits into BTC. No hard data to back that up, just my gut. For now, ETH is holding up.
3. Uniswap's upcoming V3 upgrade currently scheduled on May 5. I realize that BTC can move the whole market down with it, but with ETH holding strong (so far) gives me more confidence in Uniswap as a project that even at approx $16.8 billion market cap is still almost half of DOGE's cap. In my mind, UNI could double or triple and still be within it's fundamental value relative to other cryptocurrencies.
Trade Outline:
Fib lines for rough targets, my red arrows show potential targets depending on risk appetite and the red line at .0011 would be my most significant sell target depending on momentum and volume.
Remember BTC can always tear off up or down and drag the rest of the market with it - so perhaps betting on these two going in different directions is the unlikeliest outcome. But the technicals and fundamentals seem to line up with this one in a way that I'm willing to give it a shot and share with you.
UNIXBT註釋
At this point it's only reached the first target so I consider this a failed hypothesis. It does look like more time might give it the chance, but that was not my original idea. Hindsight says this was a model situation to buy the rumor and sell the news on the UNI-V3 debut. I entered at 33 avg and got stopped out at 37.8 so I did make a small gain. Better luck next time!
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