Critical view at world economy
Financial planners and news tooted alot of news in the last weeks, which are novel to anyone of us.
Not playing devils advocate here, one could generally assume planners would like to keep clients funds and news are overselling events emotionally, to create attention.
Taking a critical look might give clarity in troublesome times.
Ive developed two rather simplified scenarios, namely bull (green) and bear (red).
To be fair, each should be called bear, because its highly unlikely to see growth this year (sp and other index ratings seem to be slashed by analysts on the daily now).
Regarding to the bull scenario, we could likely bounce back into ema region.
pro
-goverments are finaly mobilizing accordingly (looking at you, trump, johnson)
-china seems to be getting back on track again
-effective medication might be available soon, who knows
The bear told me however, we cant comprehent real damage today
pro
-banks wont offer credits to small businesses as promised by governments (germany for example), because they dont want to risk credit default
-people underestimate dangers and stop preventing virus care, second huge outbreak
-fed , european central bank already blew their ammunition - more cash does not cure infections, unfortunatelly - they are not dry, but just creating more money is unreasonable- "bad" companies need to die one way or the other in captialistic systems
-ripple effect accumulated to sum of those events
-ripple scenario : people go full anarchy, recognising their real estate is dilluted, tax payers have to pay all this mess, over 11 years of bullrun flipped into massive wealth-burn (full bananas bear scenario, just a thought exercise)
keep in mind however:
-these are some of the best companies overall, technology and such, high margin, lowish maintenance - the rest will dump much harder
In case 1, I would really consider cashing out and reinvesting at a cheaper point in time, as a long term investor - we hopefully not reach bottom again, but recovery above the next high will take its time - lower overall bip is not priced in yet
In case 2 ? Idk, guns are pretty illegal in europe, so I rely on your opinion on how to survive this mess!
However Id have an eye on cryptos, gold and funding local business or such!
Trade save and keep diamond_handz!
Not playing devils advocate here, one could generally assume planners would like to keep clients funds and news are overselling events emotionally, to create attention.
Taking a critical look might give clarity in troublesome times.
Ive developed two rather simplified scenarios, namely bull (green) and bear (red).
To be fair, each should be called bear, because its highly unlikely to see growth this year (sp and other index ratings seem to be slashed by analysts on the daily now).
Regarding to the bull scenario, we could likely bounce back into ema region.
pro
-goverments are finaly mobilizing accordingly (looking at you, trump, johnson)
-china seems to be getting back on track again
-effective medication might be available soon, who knows
The bear told me however, we cant comprehent real damage today
pro
-banks wont offer credits to small businesses as promised by governments (germany for example), because they dont want to risk credit default
-people underestimate dangers and stop preventing virus care, second huge outbreak
-fed , european central bank already blew their ammunition - more cash does not cure infections, unfortunatelly - they are not dry, but just creating more money is unreasonable- "bad" companies need to die one way or the other in captialistic systems
-ripple effect accumulated to sum of those events
-ripple scenario : people go full anarchy, recognising their real estate is dilluted, tax payers have to pay all this mess, over 11 years of bullrun flipped into massive wealth-burn (full bananas bear scenario, just a thought exercise)
keep in mind however:
-these are some of the best companies overall, technology and such, high margin, lowish maintenance - the rest will dump much harder
In case 1, I would really consider cashing out and reinvesting at a cheaper point in time, as a long term investor - we hopefully not reach bottom again, but recovery above the next high will take its time - lower overall bip is not priced in yet
In case 2 ? Idk, guns are pretty illegal in europe, so I rely on your opinion on how to survive this mess!
However Id have an eye on cryptos, gold and funding local business or such!
Trade save and keep diamond_handz!
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