US2Y Treasury Yield vs Gold

The correlation between the 2Y & gold indicates that when the US2Y peaks, there is a US recession & gold rallies to new highs subsequently after.

** 1 = Peak in US2Y (1989) did not see a rally in gold because gold was depegged from the USD in the mid 1970's.

2 = Peak in US2Y (2000) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession.

3 = Peak in US2Y (2007) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession.

4 = Peak in US2Y (2020) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession.


Speculation

5? = Do we see a continuation of the opposite correlation between the US2Y & Gold when the US2Y peaks?

I believe so. However, I see two scenarios for gold if & when the US2Y peaks.

Scenario #1: Gold rallies to new highs after the peak in yields

Scenario #2 (Base Case): After peak in US2Y, Gold rallies to tests previous high & fails to make new highs.