A quarter point raise is already priced in. A half point raise could have the opposite effect on the long end of curve because it would likely be taken as a deflationary surprise for future growth and a stronger than expected stance against inflation, which could cause de-risking flows from stocks to bonds. The result is an asymmetric trade opportunity due to the expected outcome already being priced in and the "surprise" outcome potentially resulting in a favorable movement.
Watch for resistance around 2% yield and trendline break in lead up to March FOMC meeting.
Watch for resistance around 2% yield and trendline break in lead up to March FOMC meeting.
註釋
The expected outcome is now a half point hike so this changes things: cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html註釋
Game on
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