The Nasdaq is already flirting with correction territory, and other major market indices may follow as the credit spread increases. As the market indicates its perceived increased risk in corporate default, this spread (high-yield bond yield minus 10y bond yield) increases independent of what the Fed does.
If the recent mini-spike up to ~7.5% heads north of 10% in short order--6 to 9 weeks perhaps, I'll become proportionally bearish.
The calculation: Subtract the US10Y (left/middle blue line) from the High-yield bond yield (right purple line) to obtain the spread.
As of 7 Mar 2025, 11.95% - 4.305% = 7.65%
If the recent mini-spike up to ~7.5% heads north of 10% in short order--6 to 9 weeks perhaps, I'll become proportionally bearish.
The calculation: Subtract the US10Y (left/middle blue line) from the High-yield bond yield (right purple line) to obtain the spread.
As of 7 Mar 2025, 11.95% - 4.305% = 7.65%
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