The Dow is currently holding near the neckline of a double-top formation that developed between December 2024 and February 2025, possibly buoyed by ongoing tech and Nasdaq optimism. The broader rebound from the 2025 lows is also forming a diagonal structure, setting up the following scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
With weekly RSI holding above the 50 neutral zone after rebounding from oversold levels last seen in 2020, a sustained move above the 42,800-resistance level could extend the rally toward 43,800 and 44,800. A breakout above the all-time high near 45,000 would open the door toward the next major resistance at 46,800.
Bearish Scenario:
If the diagonal formation breaks to the downside—below 41,400 and 41,000—selling pressure could resume, forming a diagonal correction targeting support levels at 40,400, 39,700, and 39,000.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Bullish Scenario:
With weekly RSI holding above the 50 neutral zone after rebounding from oversold levels last seen in 2020, a sustained move above the 42,800-resistance level could extend the rally toward 43,800 and 44,800. A breakout above the all-time high near 45,000 would open the door toward the next major resistance at 46,800.
Bearish Scenario:
If the diagonal formation breaks to the downside—below 41,400 and 41,000—selling pressure could resume, forming a diagonal correction targeting support levels at 40,400, 39,700, and 39,000.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
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