DOW rally fizzling. Fall to 30452 ?
Multi Timeframe Analysis
Hint: The DOW rallied on FED whispers that the nation had already reached the right interest rate level to curb inflation. It is now expected that 75 or even 50 basis points will come out next FOMC
Narrative:
1. Price broke through a bearish order block on the daily. It's likely price will fall and retest this block. Order blocks are magnets for price.
2. A bearish Navarro Pattern had formed with first target at 30452 - coinciding just below the bear block.
3. Market makers will capture stop losses of breakout traders going long who naively assume further upside.
4. TDI, MFI and Volume signalling selling pressure
5. We approach the 4th leg of the Elliot Wave- a downswing before the fifth move upswing.
Await a confluence signifying a rejection from key levels such as order blocks, then take a satisfying counter position. From this juncture, we update the next forecast.
Special note: While a mini bullrun is possible, it's exent will be short-lived.
Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution
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Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do you long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For Institutional ORDER BLOCK trades:
When price reaches a bearish or bullish orderblock, ascertain the price reversal by means of
1. Dojis
2. Morning/evening stars
3. Several wicks.
4. Engulfing candles or three white soldiers in the opposite direction
5. Marbouzou in the opposite direction.
6. Break of trendline or fast EMAs
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).
In partnership with capital markets research group Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital of Mahe, Seychelles
Hint: The DOW rallied on FED whispers that the nation had already reached the right interest rate level to curb inflation. It is now expected that 75 or even 50 basis points will come out next FOMC
Narrative:
1. Price broke through a bearish order block on the daily. It's likely price will fall and retest this block. Order blocks are magnets for price.
2. A bearish Navarro Pattern had formed with first target at 30452 - coinciding just below the bear block.
3. Market makers will capture stop losses of breakout traders going long who naively assume further upside.
4. TDI, MFI and Volume signalling selling pressure
5. We approach the 4th leg of the Elliot Wave- a downswing before the fifth move upswing.
Await a confluence signifying a rejection from key levels such as order blocks, then take a satisfying counter position. From this juncture, we update the next forecast.
Special note: While a mini bullrun is possible, it's exent will be short-lived.
Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution
------
Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do you long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For Institutional ORDER BLOCK trades:
When price reaches a bearish or bullish orderblock, ascertain the price reversal by means of
1. Dojis
2. Morning/evening stars
3. Several wicks.
4. Engulfing candles or three white soldiers in the opposite direction
5. Marbouzou in the opposite direction.
6. Break of trendline or fast EMAs
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).
In partnership with capital markets research group Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital of Mahe, Seychelles
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