DOW Rebound to 30692

2022年10月1日

Multi Timeframe Analysis

Hint: The Dollar is the strongest its been in 51 years with EURO and GBP parity. Unfortunately that's bad for the stock markets and global economy.

A massive bearish institutional order block lurks at 30692. Price must revisit this zone to correct market imbalance,

Medium term Bullish Narrative:

1. Bearish institutional order block at the 30692 level. Price gravitates to such market imbalances
2. Bullish butterfly and anti cypher harmonic pattern on the daily
3. Potential retrace to the 32645 leve.
4. Traders Dynamic Index signalling oversold

The remaining rate hikes this year plus the strength of the USD should continue to hammer all global stock markets.

Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution

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Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.

-=ENTRY RULES=-

Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do we long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.

Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe

For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line

For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line

Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.

About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).