USDCAD Sell Idea

2024年12月12日

USDCAD

My Bias:11 Dec 2024
Reversal/Bearish Indications:
1-USDCAD moving inside the trend channel since Nov-2023
2-Price is respecting upper & lower trend lines strongly since Nov-2023
3-Lower trendline is being respected since July-2021
4-Formation of Crab Reversal Harmonic Pattern and PRZ along with bearish divergence on DTF
5-Formation of BAT Reversal Harmonic Pattern and PRZ along with bearish divergence on 1HTF
6-Currently, Price is hesitant to cross strong weekly resistance & supper trendline of 1.41883.
7-DXY index is extremely bullish
8-94% traders are short on sentiments (Strategy-2)
9-BOC cut 0.50 BPS rate from 3.75 to 3.25 which means CAD will bearish furthermore.

But the important observation is that CXY is extremely bearish currently. If CXY doens't shows the signs of bullish reversal then there are chances that USDCAD will breaks the upper trendline and may continue upward furthermore.

Note: I am taking this trade even CAD is becoming weak but Crab on DTF & BAT on 1HTF with divergence, Strong resistance, 94% short sentiments convincing me to short this pair.

2024年12月13日

交易進行

SL Reached.

Reasons as following:
1-CXY index was already bearish and BOC cut 0.50% bps rates on 11 Dec 2023
2- DXY index was already bullish as I described and PPI data positive values than forecast on 12 Dec 2024.
3-Upper trendline (Strong Weekly resistance & Upper channel trendline) broken

I think DXY will remain bullish due to hawkish comments of President Elect.

2024年12月13日

交易結束：達到停損點

2024年12月13日

註釋

BXY GDP data news came negative and BXY index reacted very badly. EXY remains stable even after the rate cuts of 0.50% bps but BXY fell down completely.

However, I learned that avoid trading during important data news. BE the Trade or Book partial profits to avoid losses.