Weekly closing price: 1.2455
During the course of last week’s session, weekly movement beautifully retested the underside of the 2018 yearly opening level seen on the at 1.2579. With the level holding firm, the week ended printing a strong-looking selling wick. Whether this selling is sustainable over the coming weeks is difficult to judge, but one thing we are relatively sure on is that weekly price shows little support on the horizon until we reach weekly demand seen at 1.1919-1.2074.
The daily supply area at 1.2554-1.2510 suffered back-to-back upside breaches on Wednesday and Thursday last week. While this likely cleared a truckload of stop orders above the zone, this also potentially provided big players the liquidity required to sell! Remember, when a seller’s stop-loss order is triggered, it automatically becomes a buy. A buy is what is required to sell! This – coupled with the daily selling wick chalked up on Thursday and overall dollar weakness – allowed for a dominant selloff, placing the unit within striking distance of 1.2390: a 61.8% daily Fib support.
In Wednesday’s report, we underlined a significant between the 1.26 handle seen on the H4 timeframe and a H4 resistance band placed at 1.2580 (green ). The reasoning behind selecting this area was due to resistance coming in from the 2018 yearly opening level, and the daily supply. After seeing strong selling interest materialize from 1.26/1.2580 on Thursday, we went on to report (in Friday’s outlook) that a close beneath the 1.25 handle was a real possibility, with the prospect of 1.24ish in the near future. Well done to any of our readers who managed to take advantage of 1.26/1.2580.
In spite of the market closing a few pips ahead of the H4 mid-level number 1.2450, further downside is still likely. The 1.24 handle is a logical target, in our view, since it aligns beautifully with the daily Fib number on the , which is the next downside target on that scale.
Data points to consider: No high-impacting news events on the docket; US banks closed.
Areas worthy of attention:
Supports: 1.24 handle; 1.2450; 1.2390; 1.1919-1.2074.
Resistances: 1.25 handle; 1.2579; 1.2554-1.2510.