USDJPY Top-Down Analysis (Short then Long)

Hello Traders,

Here is the Top-Down Analysis of USDJPY (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for

Week 45 - Nov 02

M > Market is moving in a wedge with horizontal support. Price has broken through support on several occasion but has not been able to sustain the downfall facing an upward rejection. Price has broken support last week again.

W > Inside the wedge we can see Bearish Trend in a downward channel. Switching to line chart we can see an M formation, its neck can be our bullish target.

D > Price is now having a pull to the upside with rejection bottom wicks and last daily candle ending in a Dragonfly Doji.

As per COT JPY saw closure of Long and major Short positions improving net positions however N-R added major Long and few Short positions, improving cumulative net positions. Commercials have added both Long and Short positions, bringing their Short positions to highest in current year, in effect increasing total open interest in JPY. JXY improved its position during the said week and further improved it last week.
We can expect a weak JPY this week.
DXY is also making an attempt to improve its position.

4H > Price has been making attempts to break to the upside but impulsive bearish move is not allowing any upward push. We saw a bearish flag 2 weeks ago and last week another bearish flag was under formation. Hence we can expect a sudden drop again. However we also expect a push to the upside from monthly support.

Pair Correlation > USDJPY has positive correlation with EURJPY, AUDNZD and CADJPY.

Thank You
AP17FX