Price is supported at 103.800, a turncoat structural support. Price has bounced off 61.8% retracement and is currently at 38.2% retracement. Price has reacted here quite a few times before. I have a long bias on USDJPY as in the daily time frame, it has broken it's downtrend and has broken above the ichimoku cloud. My bias is also bolstered by strengthening USD with an impending IR hike and weakening Yen due to quantitative easing by BOJ.
That said, we still have to watch out for upcoming news impacting Yen. Also as Yen is seen as a safe haven, any unexpected calamity will strengthen it. Stop loss is thus placed a few pips below the close of the recent lows and take profit placed at Friday's high with a healthy 1:2 risk:reward.
For the more conservative ones stop loss can be placed at 103.50 in confluence with 61.8% retracement giving a 1:1 risk:reward.
Note: I'm very new to currencies and only got interested in this pair when it broke 104.400. Experience is very limited.
That said, we still have to watch out for upcoming news impacting Yen. Also as Yen is seen as a safe haven, any unexpected calamity will strengthen it. Stop loss is thus placed a few pips below the close of the recent lows and take profit placed at Friday's high with a healthy 1:2 risk:reward.
For the more conservative ones stop loss can be placed at 103.50 in confluence with 61.8% retracement giving a 1:1 risk:reward.
Note: I'm very new to currencies and only got interested in this pair when it broke 104.400. Experience is very limited.
評論:
Japanese data came out all positive (significantly better than expected) With this new information, some may take half profit here at 104.00 as it seems like a short term ceiling. Stop loss is now moved to break even.
交易結束：目標達成:
It retested support at 103.800 again before bouncing up. It didn't come close to original stop loss. Successful trade. With a 2% risk taken here, one will be up 4% from this trade
For personal note:
Scenario 1 - Sticking to original trade: up 4%
Scenario 2 - More conservative traders will place SL at 103.520 at previous low: up 2% (as 1:1 rr)
Scenario 3 - Taking half profit and pushing up stop loss after Jap data: up 1%
For personal note:
Scenario 1 - Sticking to original trade: up 4%
Scenario 2 - More conservative traders will place SL at 103.520 at previous low: up 2% (as 1:1 rr)
Scenario 3 - Taking half profit and pushing up stop loss after Jap data: up 1%