USDJPY: not-this-time peak example in daily

When a respectful TL is hit with an exceptionally high volume, as in the case of 11 February 2016, and the market is rejected to break the TL, but still the overall picture, together with the price action following the rejection, points across the TL, that high-volume day is what I call a "not-this-time peak." It indicates a motivation towards breaking the TL, but not that time. Here, too, everything shows downside action, but the not-this-time peak didn't allow us to go below the LMLH. So a previous upper level is to be revisited to gain the strength needed to surpass the boundary.

There is a similarity among the USD pairs, which reflects the weakness in the US stock markets. SPX, DXY and the leading stocks such as AAPL are all going down. A happy decade for the US bears might be awaiting before us.

評論:

The not-this-time peak is followed by drying up of the volume, which often leads to a triangle pattern. The peak itself might be interpreted by most novice volume readers by a sign of reversal, but what it actually indicates is that time has not come yet to pass the TL. Another example of the not-this-time peak is in Apple (refer the linked idea below) on 27 January 2016. This, on the other hand, does not either mean that the triangle breakout will occur in the same direction with the trend. So this is not either a continuation signal. For the proper action, the breakout must be waited or another approach is to be pursued.

For the high-volume peak to indicate a reversal, it should look like USDCAD (I linked that idea as well), i.e., the high-volume should be followed by a decisive contrarian move.

評論:

It looks like the market is happy in the lower quarter of the pitchfork. Time to sell, indeed. Though I would like to wait a bit more and see how the bearish continuation triangle develops.