I am presenting a possible scenario of USDJPY correcting down to around 101.36.
There is an assumption that the latest 5 waves up is actually part of a bigger correction instead of a new up cycle wave (in which case I will have to activate the alternate count which wasn't shown as it will mess up the chart too much).
Why 101.36? Historically, it is a major support price zone that ended major down waves. Following are the time periods where this price has caused short-to-long reversals: Dec 1999, Nov-Dec2004, Jan - Jul 2014, Jun-Sep 2016.
You can zoom out the graph into daily or weekly to check what I am talking about (I placed circled arrows for easy reference).
What this means is that I am expecting Yen to appreciate due to flight to safety due to equity markets correcting (see related link).
The is then to short USDJPY with a stop above 107.291. Given the current price, it would be a high reward-to-risk trade.
Note that the target price is 101.36 is also very near to the fibonacci extension price that I've drawn.
There is an assumption that the latest 5 waves up is actually part of a bigger correction instead of a new up cycle wave (in which case I will have to activate the alternate count which wasn't shown as it will mess up the chart too much).
Why 101.36? Historically, it is a major support price zone that ended major down waves. Following are the time periods where this price has caused short-to-long reversals: Dec 1999, Nov-Dec2004, Jan - Jul 2014, Jun-Sep 2016.
You can zoom out the graph into daily or weekly to check what I am talking about (I placed circled arrows for easy reference).
What this means is that I am expecting Yen to appreciate due to flight to safety due to equity markets correcting (see related link).
The is then to short USDJPY with a stop above 107.291. Given the current price, it would be a high reward-to-risk trade.
Note that the target price is 101.36 is also very near to the fibonacci extension price that I've drawn.
評論:
USDJPY has moved according to my projection. While I am confident that it will continue to go down, I suggest shifting the stop above 105.50 (arbitrary stop price suggestion) to protect profits.
交易結束：目標達成:
I have an alternate view of USDJPY now.
