The USD/JPY pair's recent decline to 147.88 reflects an emerging shift in yield dynamics, with the US 10-year Treasury at 4.20% against Japan's approximate 1.10% yield. While this 310 basis point differential historically supported dollar strength, markets are now pricing in potential Fed rate cuts against speculation of BOJ policy normalization, narrowing the anticipated future yield gap. This fundamental realignment has accelerated yen appreciation despite the still-significant current yield advantage for the dollar.
The yen looks undervalued given Japan’s improving economy and rising prices, while the US may start cutting rates soon. The yen likely deserves a stronger level around 135–140 instead of the current 147.88, so despite short-term moves, the dollar still has room to fall against the yen in the coming months.
The yen looks undervalued given Japan’s improving economy and rising prices, while the US may start cutting rates soon. The yen likely deserves a stronger level around 135–140 instead of the current 147.88, so despite short-term moves, the dollar still has room to fall against the yen in the coming months.
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