We closed onJan.2nd 2024 our short hedges, and now again all long bullish positions since 14th January 2021 are active.
Question:Is Trend Following ,,BUY-and-Hold Strategy? A nswer:Noway. We are not Buy and Hold investor,we take advantages of the ups and downs of the maets. We seel short or buy long at any giveen tradable market, with high liquidity and Capitalization. Lower liquidate markets are not interesting for us. Also volatile markets are in center of our focus . Trend following is the ultimate trading strategy you can be profitable over time at the markets.
Every trader can gain profits only if following the price and trends. So also a scalper could be a trend follower(on 30 secon chart TF).Other wise he will lose money, because he trades against the trend.
Questions which may are in your minds: How far can the market go? Answer. We are not predictive traders, as we follow the price only, becuase the price is the only unmanipulated indicator.All other indicators follow the price. It is possible to forcast the market for 3-5 days(60%-90% accuracy).But longer than that periode it is not possible, as many event or unexpected events(nature catastrophic scenarios LIKE Tsunami,..) make it impossible. Therefor anyone who says the market will (ofrecasting a time periode over 5D, is in our opinion not a seriouse trader)
Question3: Where is your stop and where your Take profit level?Answer: We have more than 150 different exit strategies- and entrie.Important is:To enter orexit exactly athe the right time . We dont set Take profit limits, as it is a very unintelligent way to limit the profits. Instead we limit the possible potential losses,based on mathematicalformulas, position sizing, position reducing, sty.out orders(When we are not allowed to enter,exit,or size the positions. This methode is proven based on our historical performance. Our ultimate goals are: Protection of the account, Maximum profits possible over time
Question 2: When do you take out your positions?ANWER.If stop hits(we do it immediately. We ignore all noises(News,opinions on minds or other places. ).We only respect the sinals of our trading system and its rules. ONLY.
Question:How deep can US dolalr fall? Answer:Until the bears lose control and the bulls take control over the bears again.
Question:How high can US Dollar go? Answer:Until the bulls lose control an the bears take contril over the bulls again.
Question: How can I find out where the bears /bulls losie control? Answer:There are many different ways. The real answer is your trading strategy: Remember you are also part of your trading strategy.The best trading strategy cannot help you, if you permanently hurt your trading rules(Every day changing your strategy,copy trading, listenning to other peoples opinions instead sticking to your rule. As you are the pilot or captain of your trading ystem you need to be extremyl and strongly diciplined. And follow the price:Trend.
There is no bull side,no bear side, but only the right side of the markets. The trend is your friend. Plan your trade and trade your plan.
During this time we trailed our stops, that are now on positive territory(above average long trend price.During this time we had 7 Big Taing profits (Thank our Hedging strategy. All Profits ,which we took during this long periode was on temporarily short hedge trades, that we excecuted and closed.
Because many of my followers asked me to explain this strategy, I have sketched and explained the key moments on the chart.
The advantages of this strategy are huge, a we are sworn trend follower,but on the same time take advatage of big key momentum periodes. It is irrelevant if you take the trades on higher TF like here mentioned on 5H TF or on 1 min. TF or other. Important is that you immediately take the signals. This is essential as we hedge for higher periodes of time.For instance it is not possibleto use the hedging strategy on lower TF or for 10,20, minutes or even below D, as the correlation comes in play.
Alsoyou need a very accurate trading system and strategy that gives very accurate signals.It is important to hedge only ,if positions are in profit.If positions are not in profit, only stop loss will protect the account. Therefor we use hedging strategis only to protect our mid and long term positionsBullish/Beaish positons).
As here many daytraders are at work, hedging will not help them, Therefor I recommand to learn trendfollowing strategies to stay as long as possible at the market, to gain the maximum potential of trend That will effort and needs patience. But the profits which are extremely huge will compensate all that effort. Thans on our position sizing formula it is also possible to size up or size down our positions at any given time.That way we make sure that the maximumdrawdown of the account not brea to 1% level. This is very important as because of the correlation orIV sometimes themaet can for a short time run against you, and you get wpedout with margin call, and then if the market runs in you desired or forecasted direction(But this time without YOU!!!) .
With this strategy ,that we are currently trading +99 Markets, the account is at all timewell protected.
The momentum is currently bullish again, The U.S. dollar accelerates higher as U.S. Treasury yields extend rebound following a poor performance in late 2023
Attention will be on the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later in the week.
The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, started the new year on the front foot, rising for the third consecutive session, supported by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year note up 7 bp to 3.93%. In this context, the DXY index climbed 0.7% to 102.10 in early afternoon trading in New York, posting its biggest daily advance since October, ahead of high-impact events later in the week.
Key releases, including the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP), will give an opportunity to assess the economic outlook and ascertain if projections of aggressive interest rate cuts for 2024 hold merit.
If manufacturing activity accelerates in a meaningful way and employment growth surprises to the upside, investors are likely to pare bets on deep interest-rate cuts, foreseeing that the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to slash borrowing costs substantially in a stable economy for fear of reigniting inflation. This scenario would be bullish for the U.S. dollar.
On the flip side, if the data disappoints and shows cracks in the economy, especially in the labor market, it would not be surprising to see the Fed's policy outlook shift in a more dovish direction, an outcome that would put downward pressure on yields and, by extension, the U.S. dollar. Any NFP print below 100,000 is likely to produce this response.
USD/JPY rallied off support on Tuesday but fell short of recapturing its 200-day simple moving average. If the pair stays below this indicator for too long, sellers could reload and make a comeback, setting the stage for a drop below 140.95, but further losses could be in store on a push below this threshold, with the next area of interest at 139.85.
On the other hand, if the bulls manage to propel the exchange rate above the 200-day SMA around 143.00, we could see a rally towards 144.80. Surmounting this obstacle may be difficult, but a successful push above it could establish favorable conditions for an upward move toward the 146.00 handle. Sustained strength might embolden the bulls to aim for 147.20.
However, the greenback was unable to maintain its upward momentum for long. Shortly after setting a new 2023 high in early October, DXY shifted lower, undercut by the sharp downward correction in real and nominal yields following benign inflation readings.
With inflationary forces downshifting, markets began to price in aggressive rate cuts over the next few years in an attempt to front-run the FOMC next easing cycle. The U.S. central bank initially resisted the pressure to pivot, but relented at its December meeting, when it indicated that "talk" of cutting borrowing costs had already begun.
The Fed’s pivot accelerated the pullback in yields, sending the 2-year note below 4.40 %, a significant retracement from the cycle high of 5.25%. Simultaneously, the 10-year note plunged beneath the 4.0% threshold, when weeks earlier it was threatening to breach the psychological 5.0% level. In this context, the U.S. dollar index plummeted, hitting its weakest point since August.
The Fed’s unexpected dovish pivot is a clear signal that officials want to shift policy in time to engineer a soft landing; in other words, they are prioritizing growth over inflation. This bias won’t change overnight, but will likely consolidate further in the near term, so the path of least resistance remains lower for both bond yields and the U.S. dollar, at least for the first couple of months of 2024.
Navigational winds, however, could shift in favor of the greenback by the end of the first quarter, when additional data will become available for a more complete assessment of the macroeconomic picture.
The significant relaxation of financial conditions observed in November and December, which ignited a powerful surge in stocks, is likely to amplify the wealth effect heading into the new year, helping sustain sturdy household consumption—the key driver of GDP. In this context, the prospect of an economic upswing in the medium term should not be completely ruled out.
Any reacceleration in growth should boost employment gains and reinforce labor market tightness, putting upward pressure on wages. In this environment, inflation could settle well above the 2.0% target while staying skewed to the upside, preventing the Federal Reserve from pursuing a forceful easing campaign.
Although there is a heightened sense of optimism regarding the U.S. inflation outlook following encouraging CPI and Core PCE reports in the latter part of 2023, it is premature to declare victory. Any pause in progress or an upward reversal of the underlying trend in consumer prices next year could be cataclysmic for sentiment, prompting a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations.