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USDJPY Rally Slowing Down; Get Ready to Go Short

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FX_IDC:USDJPY   美元 / 日圓
USDJPY has seen an impressive rally from the lows in late May. But there are cracks in the armor: we see strong momentum divergences in both the MACD and the RSI. We also have a nearly complete 5 wave sequence (the wave count inside the circles), with a triangle as wave ((4)).

This is very telling from an Elliott Wave point of view. Why? The triangle pattern ALWAYS precedes the final move in the larger term sequence. So, if we have a triangle pattern in wave ((4)), this suggests that we need a final wave ((5)) up (which price is tracing out now), after which the trend will shift to the downside.

How exactly you enter this position is up to you. You could wait for price to break through the support shelf around 134.30-134.80. Or if you practice Elliott Wave theory, you could wait for a smaller time frame impulse wave to the downside to confirm the new trend. Either way, we believe that the best trades in USDJPY will be to the downside.

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