US Dollar Index Macro View 25/11 - Bull or Bear?

2018年11月24日

For the past week, Durable Goods Orders dropped -4.4%, jobless claims increased and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised lower. While Building Permits & Housing Starts came out as expected, it becomes clear that the momentum in the U.S. economy is easing. With stocks nearly coming back down of this all of this year’s rise, investors and business are not excited about the outlook for the economy. Central bank’s optimism could begin suffer as businesses delay investments and curtail hiring on the labor market. Upcoming data on the calendar that could market moving are Consumer Confidence, Q3 Prelim GDP revisions, Goods Trade Balance, Personal Spending, Personal Income and FOMC Meeting Minutes.

The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12260 & 12200 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12200 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.

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