USD PKR expectation

2023年10月18日

350 likely in the near term
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Technical (Behavioral) factors (short term to medium term)
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- Consolidation period become shorten (rectangles)
- Historical correction range (10 to 11%) which has been completed in the current correction phase
- Tested current support upward support and resumed upward journey
- Extreme oversold momentum and trend indicators

Macro finance factors (medium term)
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- Increasing real interest rate differentials comparing with developed markets (portfolio channel)
- Increasing inflation differentials with developed market (Current account channel)
- Current account equations are in elastic to FX rates (current account channel)
- High risk premiums of equities, long duration bonds and real estate (Portfolio channel)

Macro finance factors (long term)
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- Lower productivity levels and potential GDP growth (reduced from 6% to 4% in recent years)
- Expected lower natural real exchange rate (long run equilibrium exchange rate - NATREX)

Market Micro structure factors (short term)
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- unwinding short forward position by exporters
- unwinding of short positions by importers
- unwinding of short positions by small investors due to crack down (investor sentiments)