Oil Technically Oversold - Likely to Consolidate

2020年5月2日

• The battle against Corona Virus has led to a massive slowdown in the demand for Oil all around the world as cars, airlines and industries to come a halt.
  
  We are currently oversold on Oil and we can see some positive divergence starting to develop here. However longer term momentum is down and we don't think this divergence to be overly bullish.
  
  The Andrews pitchfork has done a Stellar Job of describing price and the lower parallel marked the exact bottom. We expect prices to consolidate and potentially increase the Median line.
  
  The 5 yr seasonal overlay shows that Oil usually consolidates during this part of the year with a possible trend developing in Sept / Oct.
  
  Overall we are not overly bullish on Oil until the supply and demand fundamentals are sorted out. We are starting to see China's demand pickup but more production cuts are required from OPEC before Oil changes trend in a meaningful way. We think traders should wait for a trend change confirmation before taking long positions.