Is the USDZAR About to Crash? Elliott Wave Says Yes

Technical Analysis (Elliott Wave View):
🌀 Wave Structure Overview (Elliott Wave):
Wave (1): Sharp rally up to 2008 (Global Financial Crisis peak).

Wave (2): Deep corrective wave ending around 2011.

Wave (3): Strongest and longest wave, peaking around 2016 (a textbook impulsive 3rd wave).

Wave (4): Sideways-to-down correction, consolidating the gains of Wave (3), ending 2018.

Wave (5): Final push higher, peaking around 2023–2024.

🧠 Note: Wave (5) looks like it may be ending or already ended, indicating a major corrective phase is due.

📉 Projected Correction:
The projected arrow suggests a retracement down to the 11.50 – 13.00 ZAR zone.

This level aligns with:

Previous Wave (1) top (2008),

Wave (4) low (2018),

Strong monthly demand zone (grey box).

💡 This supports the idea of a full cycle correction — possibly a Wave A-B-C retracement on a higher time frame.

🌍 Fundamental + Macro Drivers to Watch:
🇺🇸 U.S. Factors:
Interest rate cycle: If the Fed starts cutting rates post-2024, USD weakness can contribute to this bearish outlook.

Election year: Political uncertainty or a shift in administration could trigger capital flow changes.

🇿🇦 South African Factors:
BRICS expansion and de-dollarization: If BRICS continues pushing for reduced USD reliance, it might support ZAR strength long-term.

Commodity cycle: As a resource-rich economy, a commodities boom (e.g. gold, platinum) could strengthen ZAR.

Policy and infrastructure improvements in South Africa could also boost investor confidence and foreign inflows.

📊 Conclusion:
This is a major long-term top formation on USDZAR with:

Clear 5-wave completion,

Room for a deep correction (potentially 30–35% downside from current levels),

Strong technical confluence at the 11.50–13.00 range,

Fundamentals that could support ZAR strength over the next few years.