After 5 weeks of consolidation, the next leg in oil prices could be starting either this week or next. My bias is for an upward break out of the recent consolidation range of 57-61, If that occurs, i have upside targets of 63.5, 69.5, and 73. The time frame for completion of this next leg higher is approximately late June to mid July. A close of above the orange area noted would give me increased confidence in the ability of price to achieve my upside targeted range (noted in green).
Alternatively, a daily close below the recent lows of 57 would negate this target within the specified time frame. This would also increase the chances of hitting down side targets of 53 and 49.
I have also include a comparison to the 2008-2009 time frame as this collapse and recovery has acted well as a guide to the current move. Both time frames have exhibited similar patterns in price, momentum, and seasonality throughout the move lower and subsequent bottom. Should this analogy continue, this too would support oil hitting an upside target of 69-73 this summer.
Alternatively, a daily close below the recent lows of 57 would negate this target within the specified time frame. This would also increase the chances of hitting down side targets of 53 and 49.
I have also include a comparison to the 2008-2009 time frame as this collapse and recovery has acted well as a guide to the current move. Both time frames have exhibited similar patterns in price, momentum, and seasonality throughout the move lower and subsequent bottom. Should this analogy continue, this too would support oil hitting an upside target of 69-73 this summer.