Yesterday's "Goldilocks" API report - not too much larger than expectations, but still a sizable build (>+2mmbb), coupled with crude's overnight price action gives me comfort that short-sellers won't be coming out en mass similar to the prior two reports. We'll still need to wait to see what the EIA reports at 10:30am today, but the moves this morning in crude make me believe Janet's lack of über-dovishness is weighing more heavily on traders minds'. Last night, I saw a breakdown in an ascending triangle forming on the 30min chart and opened some monthly 25 puts. (www.basementmacro.co...25-put-22-mark28-45/) I'm looking for new lows.
Just as I saw quite a few coinciding resistance levels at 32.80/33.00 at the last local high, I'm again seeing coinciding signals at the 25.00 level. The H&S shoulders top formation projects a price target of 24.02, which coincides very nicely with fib extensions b/w 23.99 and 24.99 and big picture support b/w 24.50 and 25.00. There's some fib extension support at 26.36, but other than that, we should see some acceleration down to 25. Stop is at the prior low at 27.53. Target is 25.00
Just as I saw quite a few coinciding resistance levels at 32.80/33.00 at the last local high, I'm again seeing coinciding signals at the 25.00 level. The H&S shoulders top formation projects a price target of 24.02, which coincides very nicely with fib extensions b/w 23.99 and 24.99 and big picture support b/w 24.50 and 25.00. There's some fib extension support at 26.36, but other than that, we should see some acceleration down to 25. Stop is at the prior low at 27.53. Target is 25.00
