WTI looking for Bounce to short more: US Crude Oil to drop more

2018年6月5日

This is an idea to ADD to my Shorts.
I originally went short per this plan:

Now looking for spots to add more shorts, because I am pretty sure it will dip some more, hopefully to the targets shown.

2018年6月5日

註釋

Got a bounce down EXACTLY where I expected.


Entered a quick short scalp, but closed in tiny profit because I think it might go up to the next band (my middle red arrow in original chart). Will look to short a little higher due to measured momentum upwards looks strong.
Here is my short scalp and explanation of my thinking:

2018年6月5日

註釋

Wow, the power of Fibs

2018年6月6日

註釋

As I figured, price has broken above the 65.54 zone after couple of tries.
Now I will be watching the 65.85-65.94 zone for signs downtrend resumption.

2018年6月6日

註釋

Price is inching its way up to the next zone of interest.
That after breaking a hard resistance at 65.54-.56 and retesting it.
If it reaches 65.85/95 and starts to drop, I will be measuring closely to try and guess whether that drop looks like a (B) wave or start of a new impulse down.

2018年6月6日

註釋

Here we are, at my next zone of resistance, already showing some validity.
I may will pull the trigger here, but so close to London Open time is the concern:
ie: will 2.5 hours move it in my direction enough to jamb stop and BE and let the London Boys do what they will? pondering.......

2018年6月6日

註釋

Uh Oh! just found this. See notes on chart.
Looks likely to hit the top of my immediate red zone rather then just the bottom.
If it pulls much below the 2.618 in this chart, I might jump on short.
But most likely it will drift upwards to 3.618 by about London Open, then hopefully DOOM :)

2018年6月6日

註釋

Knocking on the 3.382, which caused a pause.
But 3.618 is clearly within reach before London Open and bulls will keep pushing I think.

Please tee it up bulls, Cant wait for the UK Boys to SLAM this thing :) (hopefully)

2018年6月6日

註釋

PING! Shots fired from the 3.618 bunker.

2018年6月6日

註釋

Stops jammed at BE.
Bring it on London!!
This still looks bullish, so if the stop gets hit with tiny profit, I will keep my ammo for market opening bell.

2018年6月6日

註釋

Moment of truth here: stuck between the recent 2.618 (which almost always gets tested) and the bigger picture fib zone above (notice the EXACT ping of red zone bottom). If it pings around in this area for much longer, it will EXPLODE out. Wish I knew which way :(

2018年6月6日

註釋

The entire Universe works within the Golden Ratio.

2018年6月6日

註釋

Getting back top this snap from a couple hours ago:


We are now looking at first possible bounce to start (B) of correction:

I may well close my scalp short here if that 65.56 holds.

2018年6月6日

註釋

After some fighting, my zone broke down.
Two possibilities I am watching.
Still looks like a corrective wave.

2018年6月6日

註釋

Ruh Roh, rolling down hill pretty fast.
Looks like it wants $65.00

2018年6月6日

註釋

Sure looks like a 5 wave move now.
wave 4 could come all the way back to near wave 1.
But the .382 is possible, and is struggling with the 618.
The Dark Side is strong in this one.

2018年6月6日

註釋

$65 it is then, for the Moment of Truth.
Wave 4 could not break above the .618 extension.
The down force looks strong, lets see if 65 holds.
If not, then forget ABC correction, look for lower targets...

2018年6月6日

註釋

Here we go, test of 65 zone.
If no bounce here, bad news for any bulls.

2018年6月6日

註釋

Well so much for the larger ABC possibility.
The inventory news was bad for price (more supply than expected).
So I think we had a perfect 12345 impulse down.
Normally, a minor 12345 could be an A in correct ABC as originally thought.
But with the momentum signature and news adding to it, I think correction is done.
Downtrend looks to resume. I am recalculating the zones now, but $63.50 looks like next stop.

2018年6月6日

註釋

I guess the minor ABC was not quite done yet.
I think it is done now, or very close.
It might hit the .382 extension at 65.20, but I doubt will go any higher.
It might be done already, having hit the .236 at 65.11 (and perhaps ate stops above 65.00).

2018年6月7日

註釋

Oil keeps bubbling upwards.
The .382 extension gave it some pause, I think it may leak over it a little.
But unless that drop on inventory news was totally fake, it should turn back down soon.

2018年6月7日

註釋

Important development/discovery.
See chart for evidence and its clues.
Looks like 65.54/56 to be tested from underneath.

2018年6月7日

註釋

Fake out?
Either I got bull trapped (I am actually short but was worried) or Bears are being trapped right now.
overall I think Oil is going down, and it did so at my original target of the 382.
Lets see what happens if/when price revisits that high volume buy zone.