I originally went short per this plan:
Now looking for spots to add more shorts, because I am pretty sure it will dip some more, hopefully to the targets shown.
Entered a quick short scalp, but closed in tiny profit because I think it might go up to the next band (my middle red arrow in original chart). Will look to short a little higher due to measured momentum upwards looks strong.
Here is my short scalp and explanation of my thinking:
Now I will be watching the 65.85-65.94 zone for signs downtrend resumption.
That after breaking a hard resistance at 65.54-.56 and retesting it.
If it reaches 65.85/95 and starts to drop, I will be measuring closely to try and guess whether that drop looks like a (B) wave or start of a new impulse down.
I may will pull the trigger here, but so close to London Open time is the concern:
ie: will 2.5 hours move it in my direction enough to jamb stop and BE and let the London Boys do what they will? pondering.......
Looks likely to hit the top of my immediate red zone rather then just the bottom.
If it pulls much below the 2.618 in this chart, I might jump on short.
But most likely it will drift upwards to 3.618 by about London Open, then hopefully DOOM :)
But 3.618 is clearly within reach before London Open and bulls will keep pushing I think.
Please tee it up bulls, Cant wait for the UK Boys to SLAM this thing :) (hopefully)
Bring it on London!!
This still looks bullish, so if the stop gets hit with tiny profit, I will keep my ammo for market opening bell.
We are now looking at first possible bounce to start (B) of correction:
I may well close my scalp short here if that 65.56 holds.
Two possibilities I am watching.
Still looks like a corrective wave.
Looks like it wants $65.00
wave 4 could come all the way back to near wave 1.
But the .382 is possible, and is struggling with the 618.
The Dark Side is strong in this one.
Wave 4 could not break above the .618 extension.
The down force looks strong, lets see if 65 holds.
If not, then forget ABC correction, look for lower targets...
If no bounce here, bad news for any bulls.
The inventory news was bad for price (more supply than expected).
So I think we had a perfect 12345 impulse down.
Normally, a minor 12345 could be an A in correct ABC as originally thought.
But with the momentum signature and news adding to it, I think correction is done.
Downtrend looks to resume. I am recalculating the zones now, but $63.50 looks like next stop.
I think it is done now, or very close.
It might hit the .382 extension at 65.20, but I doubt will go any higher.
It might be done already, having hit the .236 at 65.11 (and perhaps ate stops above 65.00).
The .382 extension gave it some pause, I think it may leak over it a little.
But unless that drop on inventory news was totally fake, it should turn back down soon.
See chart for evidence and its clues.
Looks like 65.54/56 to be tested from underneath.
Either I got bull trapped (I am actually short but was worried) or Bears are being trapped right now.
overall I think Oil is going down, and it did so at my original target of the 382.
Lets see what happens if/when price revisits that high volume buy zone.