I grabbed the last four times the crude oil (USOIL) market bottomed and plotted what the S&P500 (SPY) did until crude oil peaked.
1. The first is 1993, December
2. The second is 1998, July
3. The third is 2001, November
4. The fourth is 2009, February
I made this chart originally with USOIL divided by the US Dollar and decided to just keep this chart labeled that way. It doesn't impact the chart meaningfully.
You can see that the current stock market is well ahead of the past average stock market rally.
I plotted an "average" rally (using my own estimate of the average) which shows the market going steadily upwards for the next 2 years to a level of 240 in the SPY.
This cycle we have quite a different background than we had during previous cycles, but with plenty of central bank liquidity and low interest rates around the world, even Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP), the balance is off this time.
Either way: I always try to provide a different perspective of how the markets are positioned using my analytical and visual abilities.
Check out my other past charts on crude oil and the stock market as they also provide unique perspective.
Cheers,
Tim
3:58PM EST 4/21/2016
1. The first is 1993, December
2. The second is 1998, July
3. The third is 2001, November
4. The fourth is 2009, February
I made this chart originally with USOIL divided by the US Dollar and decided to just keep this chart labeled that way. It doesn't impact the chart meaningfully.
You can see that the current stock market is well ahead of the past average stock market rally.
I plotted an "average" rally (using my own estimate of the average) which shows the market going steadily upwards for the next 2 years to a level of 240 in the SPY.
This cycle we have quite a different background than we had during previous cycles, but with plenty of central bank liquidity and low interest rates around the world, even Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP), the balance is off this time.
Either way: I always try to provide a different perspective of how the markets are positioned using my analytical and visual abilities.
Check out my other past charts on crude oil and the stock market as they also provide unique perspective.
Cheers,
Tim
3:58PM EST 4/21/2016
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Decent:
Tim September 4, 2018 12:08AM EST