I see a couple ways of looking at this. We now have a lower high 54vs 54.38 and a lower low 52.3 vs 52.55. I think that finally means the bear trend is being confirmed for more people.
I normally look at simple retraces and price targets. Those imply 50% of the last move targeting 49, which was my original plan.
I am also starting to look at other patterns like Gartley, which implies a first move of 47. I saw some people publishing ideas about a H+s pattern, which I do see. The neckline and target on that are coincidentally in agreement with Gartley at 46.40.
If one uses Elliot wave then a first move down from 54 to the H+s neckline that's a 3.25$ move to 50.75. If it breaks that then elliot wave would imply a longer second wave (after a support bounce) to something greater than 3.25$. If one uses the same 46.4 target then that is a 4.3$ move which also corroborates.
It doesn't matter really which of these patterns ends up being correct. The important thing is that they offer points of support (bounces) which are 50.5-75....49.....47--46.5
For bonus points MACD daily is probably going to turn bear tomorrow, so I will be perplexed if the next daily candle is small.
I normally look at simple retraces and price targets. Those imply 50% of the last move targeting 49, which was my original plan.
I am also starting to look at other patterns like Gartley, which implies a first move of 47. I saw some people publishing ideas about a H+s pattern, which I do see. The neckline and target on that are coincidentally in agreement with Gartley at 46.40.
If one uses Elliot wave then a first move down from 54 to the H+s neckline that's a 3.25$ move to 50.75. If it breaks that then elliot wave would imply a longer second wave (after a support bounce) to something greater than 3.25$. If one uses the same 46.4 target then that is a 4.3$ move which also corroborates.
It doesn't matter really which of these patterns ends up being correct. The important thing is that they offer points of support (bounces) which are 50.5-75....49.....47--46.5
For bonus points MACD daily is probably going to turn bear tomorrow, so I will be perplexed if the next daily candle is small.
評論:
So 47 got hit and now I am long till a minimum of 50 and a max of 54.4 (unlikely). I'm looking at 50.87 as a more likely target.
評論:
So we hit the bottom of point C territory at the high today. I will wait until tomorrow to see if we will go a bit higher... taking profit along the way. There wasn't a short signal so far. Wouldn't be surprised to see wicks on both ends tomorrow.
評論:
Okay, so basically the plan was 0.04$ off of the assumed 50.84 retrace... next stop 45 then 60 :D
評論:
Holding short to 45... if support holds long term buy point through next year
評論:
Final target hit! Six months is a long time. Will update with new long idea.
評論:
I'm a little weirded out by how much the price action is playing off of the random way I drew the gartley. It was supposed to be half as wide, but I messed up. Anyway, gonna try to trade within the triangles because why not.
Anyway, zerohedge says short options the second highest they've ever been.