My Worst Fears Have Come: The Greatest Depression is Here
已更新
My worst fears have come and it pains me to say this because there will be a lot of pain, hardship and job losses but the greatest depression is starting before our eyes.
The details are obvious: the entire world is in lock-down, borders are closed, people are losing their jobs, most people live week to week, and crude will plummet to 10.00 or record lows. This is an unprecedented time the world has not seen since the 1920s.
Even when it gets a little better - whenever that is - panic will start surging like no one thought possible as US cases start shooting higher and higher when more test kits become available.
Many industries have already asked for massive bail-outs.
Another cause for concern is when the virus is eventually contained, with the massive stimulus, money-printing and low rates around the world, this will cause inflation to surge higher and lead to stagflation. What this means is we will have a rotating severe bear markets for a number of years before we can get out of this.
With yields starting to rise, the bond market is now pricing in the 'cost' of all this stimulus and is starting to price in inflation already.
Stay safe and healthy everyone.
- zSplit
The details are obvious: the entire world is in lock-down, borders are closed, people are losing their jobs, most people live week to week, and crude will plummet to 10.00 or record lows. This is an unprecedented time the world has not seen since the 1920s.
Even when it gets a little better - whenever that is - panic will start surging like no one thought possible as US cases start shooting higher and higher when more test kits become available.
Many industries have already asked for massive bail-outs.
Another cause for concern is when the virus is eventually contained, with the massive stimulus, money-printing and low rates around the world, this will cause inflation to surge higher and lead to stagflation. What this means is we will have a rotating severe bear markets for a number of years before we can get out of this.
With yields starting to rise, the bond market is now pricing in the 'cost' of all this stimulus and is starting to price in inflation already.
Stay safe and healthy everyone.
- zSplit
註釋
To re-iterate my view here, let me be clear that there are always bounces on the way down, but just like equities, the crude rally will fade and continue to fade as the humanitarian crisis from COVID will continue to worsen. When the crisis subsides, yes, oil will bounce up.I do not recommend longing oil at this time, nor do I recommend buying 'energy' stocks.
Play the shorting game at your own risk in these difficult times.
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