VIX Call Spread – Hedging Against Black Swan Risk (Aug ’25)

📌 VIX Vertical Call Spread – Aug 19, 2025 (18/25)
Executed on June 13, 2025

Volatility has compressed near multi-month lows, but the chart shows two major spikes above 45 in less than a year — triggered by macro shocks (Fed surprises, Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, geopolitical escalations like Israel–Iran).

I’m positioning with a long call spread on the VIX (Buy 18C / Sell 25C, exp. Aug 19), structured to hedge against a black swan while maintaining capital discipline.

• Risk/Reward: 2:1
• Probability of Profit (POP): ~58%
• Breakeven: ~21
• Defined risk / Defined reward
• No directional delta risk

I’m not forecasting volatility — I’m accepting that extreme events can (and do) happen. This spread pays off only if volatility spikes again above 21–22 in the next 60 days, which aligns with historical context.

🔒 No need to predict the trigger. Just manage exposure and define your risk upfront.

📈 Follow for more volatility and options setups based on structure + context.
Let’s stay ahead, not reactive.