$20 Spike if Israel Hits Iran’s Oil?

The Israeli military warned that its response to Iran’s missile attack would be “serious and significant,” as Goldman Sachs forecasted that oil prices could surge by $20 per barrel if Iranian production is disrupted.

Daan Struyven, Goldman’s co-head of global commodities research, stated on Friday that a "sustained drop of 1 million barrels per day" in Iranian output could lead to a peak increase of $20 per barrel next year, assuming OPEC+ does not immediately boost production, which typically requires time to implement. However, if key OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE step in to offset some of the supply loss, the price impact could be more moderate—around $10 per barrel, Struyven added.

Goldman did not offer a specific price forecast if Israel were to target Iran's nuclear facilities, a scenario raised after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump suggested such a strike was appropriate to recent missile activity from Tehran.