Lifatov

2000s Gold Bubble Snapshot

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FX:XAUUSD   黃金現貨 / 美元

Since the beginning of 2000s gold prices formed a typical bubble with four consecutive phases: a stealth phase in 2001-2005, an awareness phase in 2006-2007, a mania phase in 2008-2011 and the final blow-off phase developing since 2012. The blow-off phase is represented by three large patterns: a rectangle, a falling wedge and a H&S pattern. Now we expect price to reach an upper boundary of the large descending trend channel, which embraces all these three patterns, at around $1280/oz before starting declining. After breaking a neckline at around $1050/oz, gold will probably accelerate its decline falling further to $700/oz, which is a low of 2008's bear trap.

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