#1,678.80 is the next Target for Sellers

2022年9月2日

Gold's general commentary: Gold has made an important Bearish step on full scale oscillation towards #1,678.80 Lower Low’s extension as it still didn’t recovered the #1,712.80 semi-Resistance on Hourly 4 chart. That makes Hourly 4 chart critically Bearish but on the negative side (for Sellers), well Supported near #1,692.80 extension, which has held on multiple occasions throughout yesterday's session. Hourly 4 chart is still Bearish as confirmed throughout my remarks, however Descending Channel has expanded giving me positive signs that Gold should test my final extension within #3 sessions if DX continues with Bullish developments. Gold was correlated with DX throughout April - August and probability that September will also be DX correlation month is 91.80%. Remember, when you are unsure of the Long-term direction on Gold always look for clues on DX and Trade accordingly (I have done that successfully throughout April). Only when DX makes Daily chart’s Lower High’s (far away) I will be able to note with a Higher degree of certainty that the Bullish reversal on Gold is sustainable.


Technical analysis: Daily chart should turn Oversold (Williams%) anytime near #1,678.80 as it represents my final Target extension. I have spotted many similarities with outlook happened in late June to mid July #2018 (consolidation within #1,440.80 - #1,380.80) I expect to be repeated once the Top is priced in (#1,710.80 - #1,700.80) - I expect similar scenario at the moment (#1,678.80 - #1,680.80). If Bond Yields also start to pullback on every Hourly candle, especially after this week’s Fundamental data and in Bullish NFP, I am expecting Gold to first test #1,692.80 and #1,678.89 in extension. Gold rebounded near the #1,692.80 session Low’s on a Hourly 4 chart’s Engulfing Bearish candle that set the all Moving Averages #47.725 back to Bearish state (which is also a Selling sign). This move was caused by an Bullish Gap fill extension on DX after the GDP release, a Volatility reaction on Hourly 1 Chart which should soon normalize. Gold is currently on a negative correlation with DX and as long as the, Fed fuelled, DX Buying spree lasts, Gold will stay Lower. I am expecting a correction to ease near #1,678.80 which may be the maximum for current Selling extension. According to the cycle, last Selling sequence was altered near #1,678.80 extension and there Price-action rebounded strongly towards #1,800.80 psychological barrier. I doubt however that Traders will witness #1,800.80 mark test, at least for current Annual fractal. DX is on #20-Year once again and such development will always pressure Gold towards Lower levels.


My position: My practical advice for Traders is to be very cautious with entry and Stop-loss selection for current Trade. Aswell, NFP (High-impact announcement) is on agenda throughout the session, so look for pointers there. Optimal Trade to take is Sell Gold when #1,700.80 psychological mark breaks once again.