Gold weekly update 22-26.05
Gold reacted to the previous bullish manipulation and created a new one. Overall low liquidity move on 4H, which means it is quite bullish for now.
Gold should rise to the next strong zone, which will also be a retest of the broken channel. Once this area is reached, it may fall again, but ONLY if the price forms a bearish manipulation.
My bearish expectation is also based on the fact that gold has not responded to any bullish news this month, but overall major liquidity is at 2070-2080 area.
Macroeconomics
The speculations of pause of the rate hikes and the current issue of debt ceiling are pretty bullish for Gold.
The US government has about 10 days to resolve this issue, and so far there is no prospect.
Top Down Analysis
Gold cleared a double bottom liquidity and ended the week with a strong rejection. This is a bullish sign.
Gold is respecting a strongly manipulated area. For a bearish move, we need to see manipulation.
Benchmark
Gold is down for the moment, but has left double tops on the benchmark indices.
Prices in the sector are stable.
COT Reports
Very clear bearish sentiment among the major players.
Yields
Quite interesting that yields and gold are going up together. It shows that gold is still very strong.
Yields are breaking out of the range, but very unsteadily, which could just be a false breakout.
XAUUSD vs GDX
It seems to me that assets are moving in a channel.
Gold vs Silver
Silver has reached the top of the current bearish channel. Let us see what happens next.
Retail Support and Resistance
Price is still away from the mean.
Gold has reached retail support and a moving average. The question is whether it will respect them or whether this is just a reaction and a trap for retail traders.
Gold should rise to the next strong zone, which will also be a retest of the broken channel. Once this area is reached, it may fall again, but ONLY if the price forms a bearish manipulation.
My bearish expectation is also based on the fact that gold has not responded to any bullish news this month, but overall major liquidity is at 2070-2080 area.
Macroeconomics
The speculations of pause of the rate hikes and the current issue of debt ceiling are pretty bullish for Gold.
The US government has about 10 days to resolve this issue, and so far there is no prospect.
Top Down Analysis
Gold cleared a double bottom liquidity and ended the week with a strong rejection. This is a bullish sign.
Gold is respecting a strongly manipulated area. For a bearish move, we need to see manipulation.
Benchmark
Gold is down for the moment, but has left double tops on the benchmark indices.
Prices in the sector are stable.
COT Reports
Very clear bearish sentiment among the major players.
Yields
Quite interesting that yields and gold are going up together. It shows that gold is still very strong.
Yields are breaking out of the range, but very unsteadily, which could just be a false breakout.
XAUUSD vs GDX
It seems to me that assets are moving in a channel.
Gold vs Silver
Silver has reached the top of the current bearish channel. Let us see what happens next.
Retail Support and Resistance
Price is still away from the mean.
Gold has reached retail support and a moving average. The question is whether it will respect them or whether this is just a reaction and a trap for retail traders.
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