GOLD is under pressure as Stocks, DXY, Bond yield increase

8月7日

XAUUSD Right at the opening session (August 7), it decreased by 5Dollar to 2,384USD, equivalent to a decrease of 0.25% on the day, as of the time this article was completed.
The strength of the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates are the main reasons leading to the sell-off in gold prices. In addition, the recovery in global equity markets has revived the market's risk appetite, which also affected the safe-haven asset gold.
However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with attacks by Hezbollah in northern Israel, could support safe-haven gold.

U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, as a jump in Japanese stocks helped boost sentiment.
The Dow increased 294.39 points, or 0.76%, to 38,997.66 points; Nasdaq index increased 166.77 points, equivalent to 1.03%, to 16,366.85 points; The S&P 500 increased 53.70 points, or 1.04%, to 5,240.03 points.
On the European stock front, Germany's DAX30 index closed up 0.08% on Tuesday; Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.23% and Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.08%.
The Dxy index, which tracks the strength of the US Dollar, also increased to 103,199, equivalent to an increase of 0.26% on the day, a continued increase from the trading day on August 6.
Gold is under pressure partly because bond yields continue to increase, with USD10Y increasing to 3,909, equivalent to an increase of 0.33%, similar to Dxy, it also continued the increase of the previous trading session.
However, geopolitical issues remain after Hezbollah launched attacks in northern Israel, Valencia added. An escalation of the conflict could boost gold's outlook and even pave the way for a return to $2,400 an ounce.
Lebanon's armed group Hezbollah has launched a series of drone and missile attacks on northern Israel.
According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, the market sees a 100% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Gold returned to test the support level noted by readers in the previous issue. The area is the confluence of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, the horizontal support of 2,378USD and the lower edge of the price channel.

The above confluence area is an important support area, because if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will be a negative signal for the uptrend, because this means that the uptrend from the inner price channel The medium term was broken under the same double top pattern that formed.

Previously, the fact that gold was operating below EMA21 was a technical disadvantage as the EMA21 level would now become resistance in the short term.
However, in terms of trend, gold is currently still trending up because the supporting factors are still working well.

During the day, the bullish technical outlook from the price channel will be noticed by the following price levels.
Support: 2,385 – 2,378 – 2,362USD
Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2416 - 2414

⚰️SL: 2420

⬆️TP1: 2409
⬆️TP2: 2404

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2363 - 2365

⚰️SL: 2359

⬆️TP1: 2370
⬆️TP2: 2375

8月7日

註釋

What should the Fed do? The longer we wait, the greater the severity of the crisis: Monetary policy is tightening and will become tighter as price and wage inflation moderate. It needs to reach neutrality.

FOMC members' estimates of the neutral interest rate range from 2.4% to 3.8%, representing a huge gap with the current Fed interest rate - about 5.3%. And if a recession occurs, the Fed will need to adapt and cut interest rates to 3% or lower.

8月7日

註釋

A Fed rate cut in September has been priced in as 100% likely, and the bank's policymakers are trying to calm markets.

Gold price is below 2,400 USD/oz.

8月8日

註釋

8月8日

註釋

Central banks have begun easing policy which is still very important, as policy still needs to be quite tight to bring inflation back to target. They are in no rush to enter an easing cycle quickly. For those banks with enough confidence to cut, many criteria were considered, including the dynamics and composition of current inflation, the expected course of future inflation and the effectiveness of policy making in curbing demand.

8月8日

註釋

According to data released by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims fell by 17,000 to 233,000 in the week ending August 3. This is supported by lower claims in states such as Michigan, Missouri and Texas. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, increased to 1.88 million in the week ended July 27.

8月9日

註釋

World gold prices increased sharply in the trading session on Thursday (August 7), despite encountering a series of unfavorable factors. This stability suggests that the recent correction in the precious metals market may have come to an end.

8月11日

註釋

Precious metals continue to have a week of intense fluctuations. During the week, there was a time when the gold price plummeted to only 2,381 USD/ounce and then increased sharply again. Closing the week, the world gold price closed at 2,431 USD/ounce but still decreased by more than a dozen USD per ounce compared to the end of last week.

8月12日

註釋

The world gold market last week fluctuated strongly due to panic in financial markets in Asia and Europe. In the first session of last week, gold immediately encountered a shock from the devaluation of the yen, combined with concerns about the US economic recession, causing risky assets to drop sharply, pulling gold prices down.