GOLD is supported, Powell is dovish, geopolitics is complicated
已更新
With the impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish comments, the USD continued to be less attractive and gold returned to closing weekly above the original price of 2,500 USD, opening up a positive outlook for the following week.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that it is time to adjust policy, signaling that an interest rate cut is imminent. This can be considered the strongest signal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's interest rate cut. And of course that is enough for gold to continue to increase in price.
Quoting Powell: "The time to adjust policy has come. Confidence that inflation is heading towards 2% has increased. We do not seek or welcome further cooling in the labor market. We will do so." everything possible to support the labor market and get there."
New geopolitical point
According to Israeli media reports, an Israeli air force control tower on Mount Melon in northern Israel was attacked by Hezbollah missiles, with one missile fired directly at the facility. Israel has carried out a series of attacks in southern Lebanon in recent times.
However, hopes for an agreement faded when Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas blamed each other and failed to reach an agreement after more than 10 months of war in the Gaza Strip.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions have reinforced gold's status as a safe-haven asset, and ongoing global instability has prompted investors to turn to gold to seek protection from market risks and fluctuations. As these tensions continue to increase, gold prices will receive even more support.
Main basic focus
Overall, the gold market is currently fully supported fundamentally, with the USD having a weaker future as the Fed's interest rate cut time approaches, and the cutting cycle will last longer. not ending soon or just a short-term adjustment.
On the other hand, geopolitical developments are more complicated with prolonged wars in Ukraine - Russia and the Gaza Strip,... is also a very important factor promoting safe haven psychology, gold is known as a valuable asset. The most effective communication shelter.
Overall, in a simpler way, in the long run, gold will continue to have a basic upward trend, even when the geopolitical conflict cools down, which will only create short-term profit taking. In the coming time, the Chinese Central Bank will likely reduce the amount of physical gold purchases in the second half of the year and will focus more on gold ETF purchases, and this should be considered a solid support move when China China is the world's leading gold user and hoarder along with India.
Data focus this week
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data next Friday, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
Higher than expected data could be seen as a supportive move for the USD in the short term, while lower or equal data is expected to continue to support gold prices higher into the end of next week.
Additionally, US GDP data on Thursday could also bring some volatility to the market.
The economic calendar needs attention this week
Monday: US durable goods orders
Tuesday: US consumer confidence
Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims, US second-quarter preliminary GDP
Friday: US PCE index
![GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [26 August - 30 August]](https://s3.tradingview.com/k/kLel1XR1_mid.png)
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continued to close above the $2,500 raw price after receiving support and a post-corrective recovery from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension and the $2,484 technical level acting as the closest support for short-term uptrend.
The overall chart still shows that gold has all the technical conditions for an uptrend in the long, medium and short term with the long-term trend being noticed by the price channel and medium-term support from the EMA21 along with the trend. short-term from the price channel. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, with the weekly close above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, next week's uptrend will be directed towards $2,531 in the short term and more than 2,544USD.
The level of 2,544USD will still be the target for price increases in the near future. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up without reaching the overbought level, showing that there is still technical room for price increases to be achieved. the above mentioned goals.
In the coming time, the uptrend of gold will be noticed by the following price levels.
Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD
Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2548 - 2546⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2552
→Take Profit 1 2541
↨
→Take Profit 2 2536
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2493 - 2495⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2489
→Take Profit 1 2500
↨
→Take Profit 2 2505
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that it is time to adjust policy, signaling that an interest rate cut is imminent. This can be considered the strongest signal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's interest rate cut. And of course that is enough for gold to continue to increase in price.
Quoting Powell: "The time to adjust policy has come. Confidence that inflation is heading towards 2% has increased. We do not seek or welcome further cooling in the labor market. We will do so." everything possible to support the labor market and get there."
New geopolitical point
According to Israeli media reports, an Israeli air force control tower on Mount Melon in northern Israel was attacked by Hezbollah missiles, with one missile fired directly at the facility. Israel has carried out a series of attacks in southern Lebanon in recent times.
However, hopes for an agreement faded when Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas blamed each other and failed to reach an agreement after more than 10 months of war in the Gaza Strip.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions have reinforced gold's status as a safe-haven asset, and ongoing global instability has prompted investors to turn to gold to seek protection from market risks and fluctuations. As these tensions continue to increase, gold prices will receive even more support.
Main basic focus
Overall, the gold market is currently fully supported fundamentally, with the USD having a weaker future as the Fed's interest rate cut time approaches, and the cutting cycle will last longer. not ending soon or just a short-term adjustment.
On the other hand, geopolitical developments are more complicated with prolonged wars in Ukraine - Russia and the Gaza Strip,... is also a very important factor promoting safe haven psychology, gold is known as a valuable asset. The most effective communication shelter.
Overall, in a simpler way, in the long run, gold will continue to have a basic upward trend, even when the geopolitical conflict cools down, which will only create short-term profit taking. In the coming time, the Chinese Central Bank will likely reduce the amount of physical gold purchases in the second half of the year and will focus more on gold ETF purchases, and this should be considered a solid support move when China China is the world's leading gold user and hoarder along with India.
Data focus this week
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data next Friday, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
Higher than expected data could be seen as a supportive move for the USD in the short term, while lower or equal data is expected to continue to support gold prices higher into the end of next week.
Additionally, US GDP data on Thursday could also bring some volatility to the market.
The economic calendar needs attention this week
Monday: US durable goods orders
Tuesday: US consumer confidence
Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims, US second-quarter preliminary GDP
Friday: US PCE index
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continued to close above the $2,500 raw price after receiving support and a post-corrective recovery from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension and the $2,484 technical level acting as the closest support for short-term uptrend.
The overall chart still shows that gold has all the technical conditions for an uptrend in the long, medium and short term with the long-term trend being noticed by the price channel and medium-term support from the EMA21 along with the trend. short-term from the price channel. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, with the weekly close above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, next week's uptrend will be directed towards $2,531 in the short term and more than 2,544USD.
The level of 2,544USD will still be the target for price increases in the near future. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up without reaching the overbought level, showing that there is still technical room for price increases to be achieved. the above mentioned goals.
In the coming time, the uptrend of gold will be noticed by the following price levels.
Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD
Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2548 - 2546⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2552
→Take Profit 1 2541
↨
→Take Profit 2 2536
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2493 - 2495⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2489
→Take Profit 1 2500
↨
→Take Profit 2 2505
註釋
The dollar index witnessed a clear decline during Monday's trading, and the dollar index fell to touch the 100.53-point level, recording its lowest levels since July 20, 2023, after the pessimistic statements of the US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell led to increasing expectations of starting to cut interest rates at the September meeting.註釋
According to data from the US Department of Commerce, the value of core goods orders fell 0.1% last month after increasing 0.5% in June. The data is not adjusted for inflation. Durable goods orders rose 9.9%. Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 0.2%.註釋
The world gold price maintains a good price range of over 2,500 USD/oz and is not far from the all-time record, thanks to the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates in less than 1 month. A major US bank recommends investors buy gold, emphasizing the net buying trend of gold by central banks and the high profitability of this precious metal this year.註釋
註釋
Gold prices firmed on Monday, nearing its recent record high, amid solid bets of a September interest-rate cut following dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and safe-haven demand due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East.註釋
Knot offered no new information on its policy stance. The market is currently pricing in a 100% chance that the ECB will cut interest rates in September and a total of 64 basis points cut by the end of the year.註釋
Gold prices fell slightly on Tuesday (August 27), consolidating near the record high reached last week, as investors sought clarity on the scale of the Fed's upcoming interest rate cuts. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) before the inflation report released this week.註釋
Gold prices slipped on Wednesday as the dollar ticked up, while investors awaited a key U.S. inflation report due this week for more clarity on the size of a likely September rate cut.交易結束：目標達成
Plan BUY Close Full Hit TP2 + 115pips 🗡註釋
The dollar rallied 0.48% on Wednesday, perhaps as short sellers were liquidating their positions ahead of key data releases on Thursday and Friday.註釋
- The dollar rose on Thursday after better-than-expected Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims figures showed the job market remains strong.
- At the same time, an adjustment in Q2 GDP supports the prospect of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25%, supporting the dollar.
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🧩Consulting on Risk Management
🧩Account management
🧩Forex signals have a high win rate
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