Summary of Thoughts After last week's FOMC meeting, XAUUSD enjoyed a strong rally after breaking out of the previous triangular flag narrowing pattern, at one point touching a new all-time high of 2222. The price then quickly retreated to the 2158 level, where it tested support, before recovering slightly to the 2166-2175 area. With a neutral RSI, price oscillator behaviour is likely and it is recommended to watch each new low for entry opportunities while keeping an eye on potential price tops for shorting.
Fundamental Background Equities have been under pressure as market risk appetite struggles to recover following a more dovish tone from the Fed. Both the US dollar and gold failed to follow through on initial gains. In addition, US PCE inflation data and Chairman Powell's speech were released during the market break, which may influence the market after the open.
Market sentiment and trading psychology While equities rallied after the dovish FOMC statement, they then stabilised, showing the complexity of market sentiment. The long end of the yield curve showed a downward trend, which may signal the market's conservative expectations for long-term growth.
Trading strategy and expectations Short term bullish on XAUUSD, target price could be 2230 or higher, keep long strategy low. Long-term traders should keep an eye on fundamentals and economic data, especially as the end of Q1 approaches and quarterly volatility may affect prices.
Risk Alert The FOMC meeting and economic data releases are key variables for future price action. The market reaction may be more pronounced when markets reopen next week.
Bottom line Despite mixed market sentiment, spot gold maintains its uptrend on technical and fundamental support. Timely buying at lower levels and vigilance for potential price tops will be key.
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