Gold has surged to the 3200 psychological level, completing a strong bullish leg. However, the current price action shows signs of exhaustion, with RSI pushing into overbought territory and a potential rejection wick forming.
Technical Confluence:
• Price is stalling near 3200, a key resistance zone.
• RSI > 70, signaling overbought conditions.
• Price is extended from the 21-period SMA, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback.
• Rejection candle formed on the 4H chart.
Trade Setup:
• Entry: ~3199
• Stop Loss: 3223 (above recent highs)
• Take Profit: 3150 (prior structure and SMA re-test)
• Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1.9R
News Risk:
CPI and key U.S. inflation data are due within the next 24 hours (noted on chart). If inflation comes in softer than expected, gold could drop sharply as rate cut expectations intensify. Be ready for high volatility.
Bias:
Short-term bearish, targeting a correction toward the 3150 support zone unless bulls break and hold above 3225.
Technical Confluence:
• Price is stalling near 3200, a key resistance zone.
• RSI > 70, signaling overbought conditions.
• Price is extended from the 21-period SMA, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback.
• Rejection candle formed on the 4H chart.
Trade Setup:
• Entry: ~3199
• Stop Loss: 3223 (above recent highs)
• Take Profit: 3150 (prior structure and SMA re-test)
• Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1.9R
News Risk:
CPI and key U.S. inflation data are due within the next 24 hours (noted on chart). If inflation comes in softer than expected, gold could drop sharply as rate cut expectations intensify. Be ready for high volatility.
Bias:
Short-term bearish, targeting a correction toward the 3150 support zone unless bulls break and hold above 3225.
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