Weekly update Gold 6-10.03
Gold was manipulated to the upside and I am expecting continuation. If you missed the buy, probably there will be a retracement, so try to catch it. Price went up, as I expected but too early. Last week I expected price to clear some sell side liquidity before turn. As always Gold surprise us.
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomics did not change. Readings are still inflationary. Waiting to see what NFP will show and how it is changed from the last time.
Top Down Analysis
On weekly TF price formed strong bullish manipulation. There is still a lot of liquidity below the current price, meaning for me that the trend is still bearish and now gold is retracing.
On a daily TF gold also formed bullish manipulation and it was confirmed with the next consecutive bullish bars. The bullish reversal was also confirmed with a negation of previous bearish manipulation area.
In my opinion there are two reaction areas, where the retest could start, before continue up again.
Benchmark
The bullish move is confirmed by the Benchmark indicator and metal indices.
Yields
It seems that Yields are retracing now, but overall trend is bullish - for now. Meaning for me that Gold may go up for a week or two, but probably will form the second bearish leg.
XAUUSD vs GDX
Breakout of the channels - waiting for bullish continuation.
Gold vs Silver
For now Gold and Silver are synchronised.
Elliot Wave
The count is valid. Gold reversed earlier, but overall direction is right.
Volume Spread Analysis
Very often Future market is used as Benchmark and also the volume of it. For now Gold is going up, without volume, confirming the theory of short-term bullish retracement in middle-term bearish trend.
Retail Support and Resistance
I am very surprised from the price action. Gold respected the support area and long-term moving average and reversed, without to clear the sell side liquidity. Sometimes it just happened.
Momentum
Gold is a bit overbought on 4H TF and as soon as touch the band we can expect a retest of the current reversal.
RSI is also bullish.
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomics did not change. Readings are still inflationary. Waiting to see what NFP will show and how it is changed from the last time.
Top Down Analysis
On weekly TF price formed strong bullish manipulation. There is still a lot of liquidity below the current price, meaning for me that the trend is still bearish and now gold is retracing.
On a daily TF gold also formed bullish manipulation and it was confirmed with the next consecutive bullish bars. The bullish reversal was also confirmed with a negation of previous bearish manipulation area.
In my opinion there are two reaction areas, where the retest could start, before continue up again.
Benchmark
The bullish move is confirmed by the Benchmark indicator and metal indices.
Yields
It seems that Yields are retracing now, but overall trend is bullish - for now. Meaning for me that Gold may go up for a week or two, but probably will form the second bearish leg.
XAUUSD vs GDX
Breakout of the channels - waiting for bullish continuation.
Gold vs Silver
For now Gold and Silver are synchronised.
Elliot Wave
The count is valid. Gold reversed earlier, but overall direction is right.
Volume Spread Analysis
Very often Future market is used as Benchmark and also the volume of it. For now Gold is going up, without volume, confirming the theory of short-term bullish retracement in middle-term bearish trend.
Retail Support and Resistance
I am very surprised from the price action. Gold respected the support area and long-term moving average and reversed, without to clear the sell side liquidity. Sometimes it just happened.
Momentum
Gold is a bit overbought on 4H TF and as soon as touch the band we can expect a retest of the current reversal.
RSI is also bullish.
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